bayesRatings

Nationals at Mets

MLB · Thursday, Apr 30 · 12:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final WSH 5 – NYM 4
← MLB / Apr 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH021000020570
NYM003001000471
Team box
WSH·NYM
7
hits
7
1
home runs
1
3
walks
2
9
strikeouts
4
147
pitches thrown
129
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
MJ MelendezNYM2-2113
CJ AbramsWSH2-3113
Juan SotoNYM2-3200
Mark VientosNYM1-4001
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH2-4100
Jacob YoungWSH1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Miles MikolasWSH4.03313
Mitchell Parker (W)WSH3.02110
Gus Varland (S)WSH1.11001
Freddy PeraltaNYM6.04136
Luke Weaver (L)NYM1.02201

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 1 · WSH 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 45%, NYM 55% · Updated Apr 30

Expected margin
NYM by 0.5
Expected score
NYM 5.1 – 4.6 WSH
Expected total
9.7
NationalsThe matchupMets
+124Our fair odds−124
4.6Expected runs5.1
−0.20Power rating−0.07
5.5Runs / game3.4
5.8Allowed / game4.5
8.5Hits / game7.6
1.16Home runs / game0.77
3.8Walks drawn / game2.9
14−17Season record10−20
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · NYM chance
Our model fair44.7%55.3%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+12445%+15938.6%———
NYMNew York Mets−12455%−19165.6%———
SpreadNYM by 0.5
WSHWashington Nationals+0.5our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 0.5 expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 12%New York Mets by 1 run: 15%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more41%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more31%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHMiles Mikolas SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 12.41 ERA, 11 Kstarted
NYMFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·NYM
Apr 29 at NYM
last game
Apr 29 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
WSH·NYM
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
5.5
runs / game
3.4
5.8
runs allowed / game
4.5
14−17
season record
10−20
3−10
home record
6−11
11−7
away record
4−9
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.5
hits / game
7.6
1.16
home runs / game
0.77
3.8
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.90
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

WSH · NYM · 36 days
Washington NationalsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 5−5
Apr 29at NYMWSH 14 − 2
Apr 28at NYMNYM 8 − 0
Sep 21, 2025at NYMWSH 3 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at NYMWSH 5 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at NYMNYM 12 − 6
Aug 21, 2025at WSHWSH 9 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at WSHWSH 5 − 4
Aug 19, 2025at WSHNYM 8 − 1
Jun 12, 2025at NYMNYM 4 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 0

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 29at NYM14 − 2W
Apr 28at NYM0 − 8L
Apr 26at CHW2 − 1W
Apr 25at CHW6 − 3W
Apr 24at CHW4 − 5L
Apr 23vs ATL2 − 7L
Apr 22vs ATL6 − 8L
Apr 21vs ATL11 − 4W
Apr 20vs ATL4 − 9L
Apr 19vs SF3 − 0W

NYM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Apr 29vs WSH2 − 14L
Apr 28vs WSH8 − 0W
Apr 26vs COL0 − 3L
Apr 26vs COL1 − 3L
Apr 24vs COL3 − 4L
Apr 23vs MIN10 − 8W
Apr 22vs MIN3 − 2W
Apr 21vs MIN3 − 5L
Apr 19at CHC1 − 2L
Apr 18at CHC2 − 4L