bayesRatings

Mets at Angels

MLB · Saturday, May 2 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final NYM 3 – LAA 4
← MLB / May 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
NYM0010002000390
LAA10020000014121
Team box
NYM·LAA
9
hits
12
0
home runs
0
1
walks
4
12
strikeouts
8
164
pitches thrown
136
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jo AdellLAA3-5101
Oswald PerazaLAA3-5001
Vaughn GrissomLAA1-5002
Mike TroutLAA2-4000
Tyrone TaylorNYM1-4001
Austin SlaterNYM2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nolan McLeanNYM4.06316
Austin Warren (L)NYM0.22010
Reid DetmersLAA6.19308
Ryan Zeferjahn (W)LAA2.00011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
NYM +3
12345678910
largest lead: LAA 2 · NYM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 52%, LAA 48% · Updated May 2

Expected margin
NYM by 0.7
Expected score
NYM 5.1 – 4.4 LAA
Expected total
9.5
MetsThe matchupAngels
−107Our fair odds+107
5.1Expected runs4.4
−0.07Power rating−0.22
3.4Runs / game4.6
4.5Allowed / game5.0
7.6Hits / game7.8
0.78Home runs / game1.30
2.9Walks drawn / game4.1
11−21Season record12−21
4−6Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · LAA chance
Our model fair51.7%48.3%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets−10752%−12154.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+10748%+10149.7%———
SpreadNYM by 0.7
NYMNew York Mets−0.7our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 0.7 expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byLAA wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more43%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more33%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 2.41 ERA, 25 Kstarted
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·LAA
May 1 at LAA
last game
May 1 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
NYM·LAA
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
3.4
runs / game
4.6
4.5
runs allowed / game
5.0
11−21
season record
12−21
6−12
home record
5−8
5−9
away record
7−13
W1
streak
L7
4−6
last 10
1−9
7.6
hits / game
7.8
0.78
home runs / game
1.30
2.9
walks drawn / game
4.1
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.9
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.50
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

NYM · LAA · 38 days
New York MetsLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 4−6
May 1at LAANYM 4 − 3
Jul 23, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 3
Jul 22, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Jul 21, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 5
Aug 4, 2024at LAALAA 3 − 2
Aug 3, 2024at LAALAA 5 − 4
Aug 2, 2024at LAANYM 5 − 1
Aug 27, 2023at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Aug 26, 2023at NYMLAA 5 − 3
Aug 25, 2023at NYMLAA 3 − 1

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 1at LAA4 − 3W
Apr 30vs WSH4 − 5L
Apr 29vs WSH2 − 14L
Apr 28vs WSH8 − 0W
Apr 26vs COL0 − 3L
Apr 26vs COL1 − 3L
Apr 24vs COL3 − 4L
Apr 23vs MIN10 − 8W
Apr 22vs MIN3 − 2W
Apr 21vs MIN3 − 5L

LAA · Last 10

1−9 · streak L7
May 1vs NYM3 − 4L
Apr 29at CHW2 − 3L
Apr 28at CHW2 − 5L
Apr 27at CHW7 − 8L
Apr 26at KC9 − 11L
Apr 25at KC1 − 12L
Apr 24at KC3 − 6L
Apr 22vs TOR7 − 3W
Apr 21vs TOR2 − 4L
Apr 20vs TOR2 − 5L