bayesRatings

Angels at White Sox

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 28 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final LAA 2 – CHW 5
← MLB / Apr 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000100010290
CHW01020110590
Team box
LAA·CHW
9
hits
9
1
home runs
3
3
walks
4
13
strikeouts
9
158
pitches thrown
151
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Drew RomoCHW2-3223
Colson MontgomeryCHW2-4111
Josh LoweLAA1-4111
Sam AntonacciCHW1-3101
Jo AdellLAA1-4001
Sebastian RiveroLAA2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jose Soriano (L)LAA5.06336
Davis Martin (W)CHW5.27117
Seranthony Dominguez (S)CHW1.00011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +4
LAA +4
123456789
largest lead: CHW 4 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 50%, CHW 50% · Updated Apr 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.5 – 4.5 LAA
Expected total
9.1
AngelsThe matchupWhite Sox
−101Our fair odds+101
4.5Expected runs4.5
−0.19Power rating−0.28
4.9Runs / game4.2
5.1Allowed / game5.1
7.9Hits / game7.4
1.30Home runs / game1.21
4.4Walks drawn / game3.9
12−18Season record12−17
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · CHW chance
Our model fair50.2%49.8%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels−10150%−13156.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+10150%+10947.7%———
Spreadabout even
LAALos Angeles AngelsPKour margin————
CHWChicago White SoxPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more36%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more27%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 22 Kstarted
CHWDavis Martin SP · last 3 starts: 20.1 IP, 1.77 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·CHW
Apr 27 at CHW
last game
Apr 27 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
LAA·CHW
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.28
4.9
runs / game
4.2
5.1
runs allowed / game
5.1
12−18
season record
12−17
5−7
home record
5−8
7−11
away record
7−9
L4
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
6−4
7.9
hits / game
7.4
1.30
home runs / game
1.21
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.9
9.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.60
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

LAA · CHW · 34 days
Los Angeles AngelsChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 7−3
Apr 27at CHWCHW 8 − 7
Aug 3, 2025at LAALAA 8 − 5
Aug 2, 2025at LAACHW 1 − 0
Aug 1, 2025at LAACHW 6 − 3
Mar 30, 2025at CHWLAA 3 − 2
Mar 29, 2025at CHWLAA 1 − 0
Mar 27, 2025at CHWCHW 8 − 1
Sep 26, 2024at CHWCHW 7 − 0
Sep 25, 2024at CHWCHW 4 − 3
Sep 24, 2024at CHWCHW 3 − 2

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Apr 27at CHW7 − 8L
Apr 26at KC9 − 11L
Apr 25at KC1 − 12L
Apr 24at KC3 − 6L
Apr 22vs TOR7 − 3W
Apr 21vs TOR2 − 4L
Apr 20vs TOR2 − 5L
Apr 19vs SD1 − 2L
Apr 18vs SD1 − 4L
Apr 17vs SD8 − 0W

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 27vs LAA8 − 7W
Apr 26vs WSH1 − 2L
Apr 25vs WSH3 − 6L
Apr 24vs WSH5 − 4W
Apr 23at ARI4 − 1W
Apr 22at ARI7 − 11L
Apr 21at ARI11 − 5W
Apr 19at ATH7 − 4W
Apr 18at ATH6 − 7L
Apr 17at ATH9 − 2W