bayesRatings

Angels at White Sox

MLB · Monday, Apr 27 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final LAA 7 – CHW 8
← MLB / Apr 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA1201001027141
CHW00001070891
Team box
LAA·CHW
14
hits
9
1
home runs
2
2
walks
1
6
strikeouts
9
132
pitches thrown
180
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Munetaka MurakamiCHW2-4113
Jorge SolerLAA1-4113
Andrew BenintendiCHW1-4103
Miguel VargasCHW1-3111
Tristan PetersCHW2-4201
Vaughn GrissomLAA2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack KochanowiczLAA6.05215
Nick Sandlin (L)LAA0.02300
Anthony KayCHW4.07422
Osvaldo Bido (W)CHW3.02102
Bryan Hudson (S)CHW0.10000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +4
LAA +4
123456789
largest lead: CHW 3 · LAA 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 51%, CHW 49% · Updated Apr 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.5 – 4.5 LAA
Expected total
9.0
AngelsThe matchupWhite Sox
−104Our fair odds+104
4.5Expected runs4.5
−0.18Power rating−0.29
4.8Runs / game4.0
5.0Allowed / game5.1
7.7Hits / game7.3
1.31Home runs / game1.18
4.5Walks drawn / game4.0
12−17Season record11−17
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · CHW chance
Our model fair50.9%49.1%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels−10451%−10350.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+10449%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
LAALos Angeles AngelsPKour margin————
CHWChicago White SoxPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 13%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more36%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more27%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAJack Kochanowicz SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 2.33 ERA, 9 Kstarted
CHWAnthony Kay SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 6.43 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·CHW
Apr 26 at KC
last game
Apr 26 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
LAA·CHW
−0.18
rating (0 = average)
−0.29
4.8
runs / game
4.0
5.0
runs allowed / game
5.1
12−17
season record
11−17
5−7
home record
4−8
7−10
away record
7−9
L3
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
5−5
7.7
hits / game
7.3
1.31
home runs / game
1.18
4.5
walks drawn / game
4.0
9.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.59
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

LAA · CHW · 33 days
Los Angeles AngelsChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 6−4
Aug 3, 2025at LAALAA 8 − 5
Aug 2, 2025at LAACHW 1 − 0
Aug 1, 2025at LAACHW 6 − 3
Mar 30, 2025at CHWLAA 3 − 2
Mar 29, 2025at CHWLAA 1 − 0
Mar 27, 2025at CHWCHW 8 − 1
Sep 26, 2024at CHWCHW 7 − 0
Sep 25, 2024at CHWCHW 4 − 3
Sep 24, 2024at CHWCHW 3 − 2
Sep 18, 2024at LAALAA 4 − 3

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Apr 26at KC9 − 11L
Apr 25at KC1 − 12L
Apr 24at KC3 − 6L
Apr 22vs TOR7 − 3W
Apr 21vs TOR2 − 4L
Apr 20vs TOR2 − 5L
Apr 19vs SD1 − 2L
Apr 18vs SD1 − 4L
Apr 17vs SD8 − 0W
Apr 16at NYY11 − 4W

CHW · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 26vs WSH1 − 2L
Apr 25vs WSH3 − 6L
Apr 24vs WSH5 − 4W
Apr 23at ARI4 − 1W
Apr 22at ARI7 − 11L
Apr 21at ARI11 − 5W
Apr 19at ATH7 − 4W
Apr 18at ATH6 − 7L
Apr 17at ATH9 − 2W
Apr 16vs TB3 − 5L