bayesRatings

Mets at Angels

MLB · Friday, May 1 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final NYM 4 – LAA 3
← MLB / May 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM000003100471
LAA201000000330
Team box
NYM·LAA
7
hits
3
1
home runs
1
4
walks
0
6
strikeouts
14
124
pitches thrown
135
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jorge SolerLAA1-4112
Ronny MauricioNYM1-3111
Marcus SemienNYM1-4002
Bo BichetteNYM2-4100
Francisco AlvarezNYM1-4101
Mike TroutLAA1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Christian ScottNYM5.03208
Huascar Brazoban (W)NYM1.00001
Devin Williams (S)NYM1.00002
Walbert UrenaLAA5.02134
Jose Fermin (L)LAA1.01101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
NYM +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 3 · NYM 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 51%, LAA 49% · Updated May 1

Expected margin
NYM by 0.7
Expected score
NYM 5.1 – 4.5 LAA
Expected total
9.6
MetsThe matchupAngels
−105Our fair odds+105
5.1Expected runs4.5
−0.08Power rating−0.21
3.4Runs / game4.7
4.5Allowed / game5.0
7.6Hits / game7.9
0.77Home runs / game1.31
2.9Walks drawn / game4.2
10−21Season record12−20
3−7Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · LAA chance
Our model fair51.2%48.8%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets−10551%−10751.8%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+10549%−11252.7%———
SpreadNYM by 0.7
NYMNew York Mets−0.7our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 0.7 expected
New York Mets by 15 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byLAA wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more43%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more33%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMChristian Scott SP · last 3 starts: 9.2 IP, 6.52 ERA, 10 Kstarted
LAAWalbert Urena SP · last 2 starts: 9.2 IP, 5.59 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·LAA
Apr 30 vs WSH
last game
Apr 29 at CHW
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
NYM·LAA
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.21
3.4
runs / game
4.7
4.5
runs allowed / game
5.0
10−21
season record
12−20
6−12
home record
5−7
4−9
away record
7−13
L2
streak
L6
3−7
last 10
1−9
7.6
hits / game
7.9
0.77
home runs / game
1.31
2.9
walks drawn / game
4.2
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.8
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.48
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

NYM · LAA · 37 days
New York MetsLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 4−6
Jul 23, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 3
Jul 22, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Jul 21, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 5
Aug 4, 2024at LAALAA 3 − 2
Aug 3, 2024at LAALAA 5 − 4
Aug 2, 2024at LAANYM 5 − 1
Aug 27, 2023at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Aug 26, 2023at NYMLAA 5 − 3
Aug 25, 2023at NYMLAA 3 − 1
Jun 12, 2022at LAANYM 4 − 1

NYM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Apr 30vs WSH4 − 5L
Apr 29vs WSH2 − 14L
Apr 28vs WSH8 − 0W
Apr 26vs COL0 − 3L
Apr 26vs COL1 − 3L
Apr 24vs COL3 − 4L
Apr 23vs MIN10 − 8W
Apr 22vs MIN3 − 2W
Apr 21vs MIN3 − 5L
Apr 19at CHC1 − 2L

LAA · Last 10

1−9 · streak L6
Apr 29at CHW2 − 3L
Apr 28at CHW2 − 5L
Apr 27at CHW7 − 8L
Apr 26at KC9 − 11L
Apr 25at KC1 − 12L
Apr 24at KC3 − 6L
Apr 22vs TOR7 − 3W
Apr 21vs TOR2 − 4L
Apr 20vs TOR2 − 5L
Apr 19vs SD1 − 2L