bayesRatings

Mets at Rockies

MLB · Monday, May 4 · 4:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final NYM 4 – COL 2
← MLB / May 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM000004000440
COL000000200250
Team box
NYM·COL
4
hits
5
1
home runs
0
2
walks
0
8
strikeouts
11
127
pitches thrown
105
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carson BengeNYM1-2111
Mark VientosNYM1-4002
Mickey MoniakCOL2-4000
Jordan BeckCOL1-3101
Kyle KarrosCOL1-3001
Luis TorrensNYM1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Huascar BrazobanNYM1.00000
David Peterson (W)NYM4.03206
Devin Williams (S)NYM1.00001
Tomoyuki Sugano (L)COL5.13421

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +4
NYM +4
123456789
largest lead: COL 0 · NYM 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 60%, COL 40% · Updated May 4

Expected margin
NYM by 1.8
Expected score
NYM 6.2 – 4.4 COL
Expected total
10.6
MetsThe matchupRockies
−152Our fair odds+152
6.2Expected runs4.4
−0.07Power rating−0.57
3.5Runs / game4.3
4.4Allowed / game4.9
7.6Hits / game8.5
0.79Home runs / game1.00
2.9Walks drawn / game3.1
12−22Season record14−21
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · COL chance
Our model fair60.3%39.7%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 4:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets−15260%−14258.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+15240%+11945.7%———
SpreadNYM by 1.8
NYMNew York Mets−1.8our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.6
Over10.6our total————
Under10.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 1.8 expected
New York Mets by 17 runs: <1%New York Mets by 16 runs: <1%New York Mets by 15 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: 1%New York Mets by 13 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 7%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 9%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 14%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byCOL wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more52%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more42%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.563%
Total over 10.546%
Total over 12.532%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMHuascar Brazoban RP · last 3 starts: 4.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 5 Kstarted
COLTomoyuki Sugano SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·COL
May 3 at LAA
last game
May 3 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
NYM·COL
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.57
3.5
runs / game
4.3
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.9
12−22
season record
14−21
6−12
home record
7−9
6−10
away record
7−12
W1
streak
L4
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.6
hits / game
8.5
0.79
home runs / game
1.00
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.50
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

NYM · COL · 40 days
New York MetsColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 3−7
Apr 26at NYMCOL 3 − 0
Apr 26at NYMCOL 3 − 1
Apr 24at NYMCOL 4 − 3
Jun 8, 2025at COLNYM 13 − 5
Jun 7, 2025at COLNYM 8 − 1
Jun 6, 2025at COLNYM 4 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 3
May 31, 2025at NYMNYM 8 − 2
May 30, 2025at NYMNYM 4 − 2
Aug 8, 2024at COLNYM 9 − 1

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 3at LAA5 − 1W
May 2at LAA3 − 4L
May 1at LAA4 − 3W
Apr 30vs WSH4 − 5L
Apr 29vs WSH2 − 14L
Apr 28vs WSH8 − 0W
Apr 26vs COL0 − 3L
Apr 26vs COL1 − 3L
Apr 24vs COL3 − 4L
Apr 23vs MIN10 − 8W

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
May 3vs ATL6 − 11L
May 2vs ATL1 − 9L
May 1vs ATL6 − 8L
Apr 30at CIN4 − 6L
Apr 29at CIN13 − 2W
Apr 28at CIN2 − 7L
Apr 26at NYM3 − 0W
Apr 26at NYM3 − 1W
Apr 24at NYM4 − 3W
Apr 23vs SD8 − 10L