bayesRatings

Braves at Rockies

MLB · Friday, May 1 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final ATL 8 – COL 6
← MLB / May 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000100142891
COL510000000681
Team box
ATL·COL
9
hits
8
2
home runs
1
5
walks
4
6
strikeouts
5
145
pitches thrown
149
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mauricio DubonATL2-5103
Michael Harris IIATL1-1112
Mickey MoniakCOL2-5211
Matt OlsonATL1-3211
Austin RileyATL2-3101
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Grant HolmesATL5.07534
Didier Fuentes (W)ATL1.00000
Robert Suarez (S)ATL1.01001
Jose QuintanaCOL6.05103
Juan Mejia (L)COL1.02221

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +6
ATL +6
123456789
largest lead: COL 6 · ATL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 64%, COL 36% · Updated May 1

Expected margin
ATL by 2.4
Expected score
ATL 6.5 – 4.1 COL
Expected total
10.6
BravesThe matchupRockies
−174Our fair odds+174
6.5Expected runs4.1
+0.13Power rating−0.52
5.5Runs / game4.3
3.5Allowed / game4.5
9.3Hits / game8.6
1.34Home runs / game0.97
3.2Walks drawn / game3.0
22−10Season record14−18
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · COL chance
Our model fair63.6%36.4%
Kalshi63.6%40.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−17464%−17563.6%———
COLColorado Rockies+17436%+14640.7%———
SpreadATL by 2.4
ATLAtlanta Braves−2.4our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+2.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.6
Over10.6our total————
Under10.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 2.4 expected
Atlanta Braves by 18 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 17 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 16 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 9%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 13%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byCOL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more56%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more46%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.562%
Total over 10.546%
Total over 12.532%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.91 ERA, 11 Kstarted
COLJose Quintana SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.14 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·COL
Apr 30 vs DET
last game
Apr 30 at CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
ATL·COL
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.52
5.5
runs / game
4.3
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.5
22−10
season record
14−18
12−6
home record
7−6
10−4
away record
7−12
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
9.3
hits / game
8.6
1.34
home runs / game
0.97
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.44
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

ATL · COL · 37 days
Atlanta BravesColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 4−6
Jun 15, 2025at ATLCOL 10 − 1
Jun 14, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 1
Jun 13, 2025at ATLATL 12 − 4
Apr 30, 2025at COLCOL 2 − 1
Apr 29, 2025at COLATL 8 − 2
Apr 28, 2025at COLATL 6 − 3
Sep 5, 2024at ATLCOL 3 − 1
Sep 4, 2024at ATLATL 5 − 2
Sep 3, 2024at ATLATL 3 − 0
Aug 11, 2024at COLCOL 9 − 8

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 30vs DET2 − 5L
Apr 29vs DET4 − 3W
Apr 28vs DET5 − 2W
Apr 26vs PHI6 − 2W
Apr 25vs PHI5 − 8L
Apr 24vs PHI5 − 3W
Apr 23at WSH7 − 2W
Apr 22at WSH8 − 6W
Apr 21at WSH4 − 11L
Apr 20at WSH9 − 4W

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 30at CIN4 − 6L
Apr 29at CIN13 − 2W
Apr 28at CIN2 − 7L
Apr 26at NYM3 − 0W
Apr 26at NYM3 − 1W
Apr 24at NYM4 − 3W
Apr 23vs SD8 − 10L
Apr 22vs SD8 − 3W
Apr 21vs SD0 − 1L
Apr 20vs LAD3 − 12L