bayesRatings

Mets at Angels

MLB · Sunday, May 3 · 3:07 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final NYM 5 – LAA 1
← MLB / May 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM000200030571
LAA100000000160
Team box
NYM·LAA
7
hits
6
2
home runs
0
4
walks
3
9
strikeouts
11
131
pitches thrown
153
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mark VientosNYM2-4224
Jorge SolerLAA1-4001
Nolan SchanuelLAA2-4000
Bo BichetteNYM2-5000
Carson BengeNYM1-2201
Mike TroutLAA1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Clay Holmes (W)NYM6.24136
Jack Kochanowicz (L)LAA6.15236

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +4
NYM +4
123456789
largest lead: LAA 1 · NYM 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 51%, LAA 49% · Updated May 3

Expected margin
NYM by 0.7
Expected score
NYM 5.0 – 4.4 LAA
Expected total
9.4
MetsThe matchupAngels
−105Our fair odds+105
5.0Expected runs4.4
−0.08Power rating−0.20
3.4Runs / game4.6
4.5Allowed / game4.9
7.6Hits / game7.9
0.76Home runs / game1.26
2.9Walks drawn / game4.1
11−22Season record13−21
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · LAA chance
Our model fair51.2%48.9%
Kalshi57.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets−10551%−13757.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+10549%+10947.7%———
SpreadNYM by 0.7
NYMNew York Mets−0.7our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 0.7 expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byLAA wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more43%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more33%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMClay Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 13 Kstarted
LAAJack Kochanowicz SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 2.95 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·LAA
May 2 at LAA
last game
May 2 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
NYM·LAA
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
3.4
runs / game
4.6
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.9
11−22
season record
13−21
6−12
home record
6−8
5−10
away record
7−13
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
2−8
7.6
hits / game
7.9
0.76
home runs / game
1.26
2.9
walks drawn / game
4.1
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.9
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.48
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

NYM · LAA · 39 days
New York MetsLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 4−6
May 2at LAALAA 4 − 3
May 1at LAANYM 4 − 3
Jul 23, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 3
Jul 22, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Jul 21, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 5
Aug 4, 2024at LAALAA 3 − 2
Aug 3, 2024at LAALAA 5 − 4
Aug 2, 2024at LAANYM 5 − 1
Aug 27, 2023at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Aug 26, 2023at NYMLAA 5 − 3

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 2at LAA3 − 4L
May 1at LAA4 − 3W
Apr 30vs WSH4 − 5L
Apr 29vs WSH2 − 14L
Apr 28vs WSH8 − 0W
Apr 26vs COL0 − 3L
Apr 26vs COL1 − 3L
Apr 24vs COL3 − 4L
Apr 23vs MIN10 − 8W
Apr 22vs MIN3 − 2W

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
May 2vs NYM4 − 3W
May 1vs NYM3 − 4L
Apr 29at CHW2 − 3L
Apr 28at CHW2 − 5L
Apr 27at CHW7 − 8L
Apr 26at KC9 − 11L
Apr 25at KC1 − 12L
Apr 24at KC3 − 6L
Apr 22vs TOR7 − 3W
Apr 21vs TOR2 − 4L