bayesRatings

Braves at Rockies

MLB · Sunday, May 3 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final ATL 11 – COL 6
← MLB / May 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL03003200311140
COL1012100106110
Team box
ATL·COL
14
hits
11
2
home runs
3
6
walks
6
9
strikeouts
13
159
pitches thrown
185
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jonah HeimATL2-4215
Mickey MoniakCOL2-4223
TJ RumfieldCOL3-5112
Jorge MateoATL2-5112
Matt OlsonATL2-4201
Ozzie AlbiesATL2-3301
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Spencer StriderATL3.14356
Aaron Bummer (W)ATL1.03202
Kyle Freeland (L)COL4.18637

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +5
ATL +5
123456789
largest lead: COL 1 · ATL 5lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 65%, COL 35% · Updated May 3

Expected margin
ATL by 2.6
Expected score
ATL 6.8 – 4.2 COL
Expected total
10.9
BravesThe matchupRockies
−187Our fair odds+187
6.8Expected runs4.2
+0.15Power rating−0.56
5.7Runs / game4.2
3.5Allowed / game4.7
9.4Hits / game8.5
1.41Home runs / game0.94
3.2Walks drawn / game3.1
24−10Season record14−20
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · COL chance
Our model fair65.1%34.9%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−18765%−14258.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+18735%+11945.7%———
SpreadATL by 2.6
ATLAtlanta Braves−2.6our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+2.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.9
Over10.9our total————
Under10.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 2.6 expected
Atlanta Braves by 19 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 18 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 17 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 16 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 9%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 13%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 19 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byCOL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more58%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more48%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one run22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.564%
Total over 10.548%
Total over 12.534%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLSpencer Strider SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 17 Kstarted
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 3.97 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·COL
May 2 at COL
last game
May 2 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
ATL·COL
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.56
5.7
runs / game
4.2
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.7
24−10
season record
14−20
12−6
home record
7−8
12−4
away record
7−12
W2
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
5−5
9.4
hits / game
8.5
1.41
home runs / game
0.94
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.44
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

ATL · COL · 39 days
Atlanta BravesColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 3−7
May 2at COLATL 9 − 1
May 1at COLATL 8 − 6
Jun 15, 2025at ATLCOL 10 − 1
Jun 14, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 1
Jun 13, 2025at ATLATL 12 − 4
Apr 30, 2025at COLCOL 2 − 1
Apr 29, 2025at COLATL 8 − 2
Apr 28, 2025at COLATL 6 − 3
Sep 5, 2024at ATLCOL 3 − 1
Sep 4, 2024at ATLATL 5 − 2

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
May 2at COL9 − 1W
May 1at COL8 − 6W
Apr 30vs DET2 − 5L
Apr 29vs DET4 − 3W
Apr 28vs DET5 − 2W
Apr 26vs PHI6 − 2W
Apr 25vs PHI5 − 8L
Apr 24vs PHI5 − 3W
Apr 23at WSH7 − 2W
Apr 22at WSH8 − 6W

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
May 2vs ATL1 − 9L
May 1vs ATL6 − 8L
Apr 30at CIN4 − 6L
Apr 29at CIN13 − 2W
Apr 28at CIN2 − 7L
Apr 26at NYM3 − 0W
Apr 26at NYM3 − 1W
Apr 24at NYM4 − 3W
Apr 23vs SD8 − 10L
Apr 22vs SD8 − 3W