bayesRatings

Mets at Rockies

MLB · Wednesday, May 6 · 8:20 PM CT · Coors Field · Final NYM 10 – COL 5
← MLB / May 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM10030400210150
COL0000040015131
Team box
NYM·COL
15
hits
13
2
home runs
2
4
walks
3
3
strikeouts
8
172
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Marcus SemienNYM4-5312
TJ RumfieldCOL3-4111
Jake McCarthyCOL1-4112
Juan SotoNYM1-4112
Carson BengeNYM2-5202
Tyler FreemanCOL2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Freddy Peralta (W)NYM5.04021
Devin Williams (S)NYM0.20002
Michael Lorenzen (L)COL5.011732

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +8
NYM +8
123456789
largest lead: COL 0 · NYM 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 61%, COL 39% · Updated May 6

Expected margin
NYM by 1.8
Expected score
NYM 6.2 – 4.3 COL
Expected total
10.5
MetsThe matchupRockies
−154Our fair odds+154
6.2Expected runs4.3
−0.06Power rating−0.59
3.5Runs / game4.2
4.3Allowed / game4.9
7.5Hits / game8.4
0.80Home runs / game0.97
2.9Walks drawn / game3.1
13−22Season record14−22
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · COL chance
Our model fair60.7%39.4%
Kalshi61.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets−15461%−16161.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+15439%+13442.7%———
SpreadNYM by 1.8
NYMNew York Mets−1.8our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.5
Over10.5our total————
Under10.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 1.8 expected
New York Mets by 17 runs: <1%New York Mets by 16 runs: <1%New York Mets by 15 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: 1%New York Mets by 13 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 7%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 14%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byCOL wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more52%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more42%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.562%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.531%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 17 Kstarted
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·COL
May 4 at COL
last game
May 4 vs NYM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
NYM·COL
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.59
3.5
runs / game
4.2
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.9
13−22
season record
14−22
6−12
home record
7−10
7−10
away record
7−12
W2
streak
L5
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.5
hits / game
8.4
0.80
home runs / game
0.97
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.49
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

NYM · COL · 42 days
New York MetsColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 3−7
May 4at COLNYM 4 − 2
Apr 26at NYMCOL 3 − 0
Apr 26at NYMCOL 3 − 1
Apr 24at NYMCOL 4 − 3
Jun 8, 2025at COLNYM 13 − 5
Jun 7, 2025at COLNYM 8 − 1
Jun 6, 2025at COLNYM 4 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 3
May 31, 2025at NYMNYM 8 − 2
May 30, 2025at NYMNYM 4 − 2

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
May 4at COL4 − 2W
May 3at LAA5 − 1W
May 2at LAA3 − 4L
May 1at LAA4 − 3W
Apr 30vs WSH4 − 5L
Apr 29vs WSH2 − 14L
Apr 28vs WSH8 − 0W
Apr 26vs COL0 − 3L
Apr 26vs COL1 − 3L
Apr 24vs COL3 − 4L

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
May 4vs NYM2 − 4L
May 3vs ATL6 − 11L
May 2vs ATL1 − 9L
May 1vs ATL6 − 8L
Apr 30at CIN4 − 6L
Apr 29at CIN13 − 2W
Apr 28at CIN2 − 7L
Apr 26at NYM3 − 0W
Apr 26at NYM3 − 1W
Apr 24at NYM4 − 3W