bayesRatings

Mets at Rockies

MLB · Thursday, May 7 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final NYM 2 – COL 6
← MLB / May 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM020000000260
COL00010104670
Team box
NYM·COL
6
hits
7
0
home runs
1
5
walks
7
6
strikeouts
10
157
pitches thrown
122
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake McCarthyCOL2-4115
Willi CastroCOL1-2101
Tyrone TaylorNYM1-2001
Austin SlaterNYM2-3100
Tyler FreemanCOL1-4100
Troy JohnstonCOL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Christian ScottNYM4.23126
Craig Kimbrel (L)NYM1.03412
Jose QuintanaCOL5.25222
Antonio Senzatela (W)COL2.01012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +4
NYM +4
123456789
largest lead: COL 4 · NYM 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 61%, COL 39% · Updated May 7

Expected margin
NYM by 1.8
Expected score
NYM 6.2 – 4.4 COL
Expected total
10.7
MetsThe matchupRockies
−159Our fair odds+159
6.2Expected runs4.4
−0.05Power rating−0.61
3.7Runs / game4.2
4.3Allowed / game5.0
7.7Hits / game8.6
0.83Home runs / game1.00
2.9Walks drawn / game3.1
14−22Season record14−23
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · COL chance
Our model fair61.5%38.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets−15961%————
COLColorado Rockies+15939%————
SpreadNYM by 1.8
NYMNew York Mets−1.8our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.7
Over10.7our total————
Under10.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 1.8 expected
New York Mets by 18 runs: <1%New York Mets by 17 runs: <1%New York Mets by 16 runs: <1%New York Mets by 15 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: 1%New York Mets by 13 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 7%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 13%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byCOL wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more52%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more42%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.563%
Total over 10.547%
Total over 12.532%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMChristian Scott SP · last 3 starts: 10.1 IP, 5.23 ERA, 13 Kstarted
COLJose Quintana SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·COL
May 6 at COL
last game
May 6 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
NYM·COL
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.61
3.7
runs / game
4.2
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.0
14−22
season record
14−23
6−12
home record
7−11
8−10
away record
7−12
W3
streak
L6
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
8.6
0.83
home runs / game
1.00
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.47
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

NYM · COL · 43 days
New York MetsColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 3−7
May 6at COLNYM 10 − 5
May 4at COLNYM 4 − 2
Apr 26at NYMCOL 3 − 0
Apr 26at NYMCOL 3 − 1
Apr 24at NYMCOL 4 − 3
Jun 8, 2025at COLNYM 13 − 5
Jun 7, 2025at COLNYM 8 − 1
Jun 6, 2025at COLNYM 4 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 3
May 31, 2025at NYMNYM 8 − 2

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
May 6at COL10 − 5W
May 4at COL4 − 2W
May 3at LAA5 − 1W
May 2at LAA3 − 4L
May 1at LAA4 − 3W
Apr 30vs WSH4 − 5L
Apr 29vs WSH2 − 14L
Apr 28vs WSH8 − 0W
Apr 26vs COL0 − 3L
Apr 26vs COL1 − 3L

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L6
May 6vs NYM5 − 10L
May 4vs NYM2 − 4L
May 3vs ATL6 − 11L
May 2vs ATL1 − 9L
May 1vs ATL6 − 8L
Apr 30at CIN4 − 6L
Apr 29at CIN13 − 2W
Apr 28at CIN2 − 7L
Apr 26at NYM3 − 0W
Apr 26at NYM3 − 1W