bayesRatings

Mets at Diamondbacks

MLB · Sunday, May 10 · 3:10 PM CT · Chase Field · Final NYM 1 – ARI 5
← MLB / May 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM000001000143
ARI02000300550
Team box
NYM·ARI
4
hits
5
0
home runs
0
4
walks
4
4
strikeouts
7
139
pitches thrown
109
3
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan WaldschmidtARI2-4103
Ketel MarteARI1-3002
Luis TorrensNYM2-3001
James McCannARI1-3000
Jorge BarrosaARI1-3100
Mark VientosNYM1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Huascar Brazoban (L)NYM1.00230
Eduardo Rodriguez (W)ARI8.14134

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +4
NYM +4
123456789
largest lead: ARI 4 · NYM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 47%, ARI 53% · Updated May 10

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.8 – 4.8 ARI
Expected total
9.6
MetsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+114Our fair odds−114
4.8Expected runs4.8
−0.06Power rating−0.01
3.5Runs / game4.3
4.2Allowed / game5.0
7.5Hits / game7.9
0.79Home runs / game0.95
2.9Walks drawn / game2.8
15−24Season record18−20
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · ARI chance
Our model fair46.7%53.3%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+11447%−10350.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−11453%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets−0.1our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byARI wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more38%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more29%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMHuascar Brazoban RP · last 3 starts: 4.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4 Kstarted
ARIEduardo Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·ARI
May 9 at ARI
last game
May 9 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
NYM·ARI
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
3.5
runs / game
4.3
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.0
15−24
season record
18−20
6−12
home record
11−9
9−12
away record
7−11
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.5
hits / game
7.9
0.79
home runs / game
0.95
2.9
walks drawn / game
2.8
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.44
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

NYM · ARI · 46 days
New York MetsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 6−4
May 9at ARIARI 2 − 1
May 8at ARINYM 3 − 1
Apr 9at NYMARI 7 − 1
Apr 8at NYMARI 7 − 2
Apr 7at NYMNYM 4 − 3
May 7, 2025at ARINYM 7 − 1
May 6, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 1
May 5, 2025at ARINYM 5 − 4
May 1, 2025at NYMARI 4 − 2
Apr 30, 2025at NYMARI 4 − 3

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 9at ARI1 − 2L
May 8at ARI3 − 1W
May 7at COL2 − 6L
May 6at COL10 − 5W
May 4at COL4 − 2W
May 3at LAA5 − 1W
May 2at LAA3 − 4L
May 1at LAA4 − 3W
Apr 30vs WSH4 − 5L
Apr 29vs WSH2 − 14L

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
May 9vs NYM2 − 1W
May 8vs NYM1 − 3L
May 7vs PIT2 − 4L
May 6vs PIT0 − 1L
May 5vs PIT9 − 0W
May 3at CHC4 − 8L
May 2at CHC0 − 2L
May 1at CHC5 − 6L
Apr 30at MIL1 − 13L
Apr 29at MIL6 − 2W