bayesRatings

Mets at Diamondbacks

MLB · Saturday, May 9 · 6:15 PM CT · Chase Field · Final NYM 1 – ARI 2
← MLB / May 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM010000000130
ARI00200000260
Team box
NYM·ARI
3
hits
6
0
home runs
0
3
walks
4
8
strikeouts
8
139
pitches thrown
125
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ildemaro VargasARI1-4002
Brett BatyNYM1-3001
Nolan ArenadoARI1-3000
Ketel MarteARI1-4000
Geraldo PerdomoARI1-3100
Adrian Del CastilloARI1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Clay Holmes (L)NYM5.25226
Merrill Kelly (W)ARI7.03136
Paul Sewald (S)ARI1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
NYM +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 1 · NYM 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 47%, ARI 53% · Updated May 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 5.0 – 4.8 ARI
Expected total
9.8
MetsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+112Our fair odds−112
5.0Expected runs4.8
−0.06Power rating−0.02
3.6Runs / game4.4
4.3Allowed / game5.1
7.6Hits / game7.9
0.82Home runs / game0.97
2.9Walks drawn / game2.8
15−23Season record17−20
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · ARI chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshi52.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+11247%−11252.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−11253%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets−0.2our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byARI wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more39%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more30%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMClay Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 1.37 ERA, 15 Kstarted
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 12.51 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·ARI
May 8 at ARI
last game
May 8 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
8th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
NYM·ARI
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
3.6
runs / game
4.4
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.1
15−23
season record
17−20
6−12
home record
10−9
9−11
away record
7−11
W1
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
2−8
7.6
hits / game
7.9
0.82
home runs / game
0.97
2.9
walks drawn / game
2.8
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.45
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

NYM · ARI · 45 days
New York MetsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 5−5
May 8at ARINYM 3 − 1
Apr 9at NYMARI 7 − 1
Apr 8at NYMARI 7 − 2
Apr 7at NYMNYM 4 − 3
May 7, 2025at ARINYM 7 − 1
May 6, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 1
May 5, 2025at ARINYM 5 − 4
May 1, 2025at NYMARI 4 − 2
Apr 30, 2025at NYMARI 4 − 3
Apr 29, 2025at NYMNYM 8 − 3

NYM · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 8at ARI3 − 1W
May 7at COL2 − 6L
May 6at COL10 − 5W
May 4at COL4 − 2W
May 3at LAA5 − 1W
May 2at LAA3 − 4L
May 1at LAA4 − 3W
Apr 30vs WSH4 − 5L
Apr 29vs WSH2 − 14L
Apr 28vs WSH8 − 0W

ARI · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
May 8vs NYM1 − 3L
May 7vs PIT2 − 4L
May 6vs PIT0 − 1L
May 5vs PIT9 − 0W
May 3at CHC4 − 8L
May 2at CHC0 − 2L
May 1at CHC5 − 6L
Apr 30at MIL1 − 13L
Apr 29at MIL6 − 2W
Apr 28at MIL2 − 13L