bayesRatings

Tigers at Mets

MLB · Tuesday, May 12 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final DET 2 – NYM 10
← MLB / May 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET0200000002102
NYM0111032210130
Team box
DET·NYM
10
hits
13
1
home runs
0
3
walks
6
11
strikeouts
8
202
pitches thrown
159
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dillon DinglerDET1-3111
Juan SotoNYM2-5101
Mark VientosNYM2-5101
Carson BengeNYM2-5101
A.J. EwingNYM1-2202
Colt KeithDET2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack Flaherty (L)DET3.26332
Freddy Peralta (W)NYM6.07217

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +8
DET +8
123456789
largest lead: NYM 8 · DET 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 50%, NYM 50% · Updated May 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 4.3 – 4.2 NYM
Expected total
8.5
TigersThe matchupMets
−102Our fair odds+102
4.3Expected runs4.2
+0.03Power rating−0.07
4.3Runs / game3.5
4.2Allowed / game4.2
8.0Hits / game7.4
0.90Home runs / game0.78
3.8Walks drawn / game3.0
19−22Season record15−25
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · NYM chance
Our model fair50.4%49.6%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers−10250%+12444.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+10250%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers−0.1our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 1 run: 15%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%
← DET wins byNYM wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more36%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more26%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETJack Flaherty SP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 10.12 ERA, 18 Kstarted
NYMFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 1.62 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·NYM
May 10 at KC
last game
May 10 at ARI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
DET·NYM
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.3
runs / game
3.5
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.2
19−22
season record
15−25
12−6
home record
6−12
7−16
away record
9−13
W1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
7.4
0.90
home runs / game
0.78
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.56
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

DET · NYM · 48 days
Detroit TigersNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NYM 3−6
Sep 3, 2025at DETDET 6 − 2
Sep 2, 2025at DETNYM 12 − 5
Sep 1, 2025at DETNYM 10 − 8
Apr 4, 2024at NYMNYM 2 − 1
Apr 4, 2024at NYMDET 6 − 3
Apr 1, 2024at NYMDET 5 − 0
May 4, 2023at DETDET 2 − 0
May 3, 2023at DETDET 8 − 1
May 3, 2023at DETDET 6 − 5

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 10at KC6 − 3W
May 9at KC1 − 5L
May 8at KC3 − 4L
May 6vs BOS0 − 4L
May 5vs BOS3 − 10L
May 4vs BOS4 − 5L
May 3vs TEX7 − 1W
May 2vs TEX5 − 1W
May 1vs TEX4 − 5L
Apr 30at ATL5 − 2W

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 10at ARI1 − 5L
May 9at ARI1 − 2L
May 8at ARI3 − 1W
May 7at COL2 − 6L
May 6at COL10 − 5W
May 4at COL4 − 2W
May 3at LAA5 − 1W
May 2at LAA3 − 4L
May 1at LAA4 − 3W
Apr 30vs WSH4 − 5L