bayesRatings

Tigers at Royals

MLB · Saturday, May 9 · 6:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final DET 1 – KC 5
← MLB / May 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET000000010141
KC20030000561
Team box
DET·KC
4
hits
6
0
home runs
2
2
walks
2
9
strikeouts
5
111
pitches thrown
122
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael MasseyKC1-3113
Bobby Witt Jr.KC1-4112
Riley GreeneDET1-3001
Kerry CarpenterDET1-1000
Spencer TorkelsonDET1-4000
Kevin McGonigleDET1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Burch Smith (L)DET0.13200
Michael Wacha (W)KC7.02026

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +5
DET +5
123456789
largest lead: KC 5 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 49%, KC 51% · Updated May 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
KC 4.0 – 3.9 DET
Expected total
7.9
TigersThe matchupRoyals
+105Our fair odds−105
3.9Expected runs4.0
+0.02Power rating−0.01
4.3Runs / game4.1
4.2Allowed / game4.5
8.1Hits / game8.0
0.92Home runs / game1.00
3.8Walks drawn / game3.6
18−21Season record18−21
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · KC chance
Our model fair48.8%51.2%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+10549%+11446.7%———
KCKansas City Royals−10551%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers+0.1our margin————
KCKansas City Royals−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 16%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%
← DET wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more36%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more25%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETBurch Smith RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 6.23 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·KC
May 8 at KC
last game
May 8 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
DET·KC
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.3
runs / game
4.1
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.5
18−21
season record
18−21
12−6
home record
12−9
6−15
away record
6−12
L4
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.0
0.92
home runs / game
1.00
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.56
errors / game
0.26

Rating Trend

DET · KC · 45 days
Detroit TigersKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 3−7
May 8at KCKC 4 − 3
Apr 16at DETDET 10 − 9
Apr 15at DETDET 2 − 1
Apr 14at DETDET 2 − 1
Aug 31, 2025at KCDET 5 − 0
Aug 30, 2025at KCKC 3 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at KCDET 5 − 3
Aug 24, 2025at DETKC 10 − 8
Aug 23, 2025at DETDET 4 − 2
Aug 22, 2025at DETDET 7 − 5

DET · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
May 8at KC3 − 4L
May 6vs BOS0 − 4L
May 5vs BOS3 − 10L
May 4vs BOS4 − 5L
May 3vs TEX7 − 1W
May 2vs TEX5 − 1W
May 1vs TEX4 − 5L
Apr 30at ATL5 − 2W
Apr 29at ATL3 − 4L
Apr 28at ATL2 − 5L

KC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 8vs DET4 − 3W
May 7vs CLE5 − 8L
May 6vs CLE1 − 3L
May 5vs CLE5 − 3W
May 4vs CLE6 − 2W
May 3at SEA4 − 1W
May 2at SEA3 − 2W
May 1at SEA7 − 6W
Apr 30at ATH3 − 6L
Apr 29at ATH2 − 5L