bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Tigers

MLB · Friday, May 15 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final TOR 2 – DET 3
← MLB / May 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR020000000251
DET001001001370
Team box
TOR·DET
5
hits
7
0
home runs
0
2
walks
5
6
strikeouts
9
135
pitches thrown
132
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andres GimenezTOR1-3002
Riley GreeneDET1-4001
Dillon DinglerDET2-3100
Spencer TorkelsonDET1-3001
Jahmai JonesDET1-1000
Matt VierlingDET1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trey YesavageTOR6.04236
Jeff Hoffman (L)TOR0.22112
Brenan HanifeeDET1.01101
Kenley Jansen (W)DET1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
TOR +3
123456789
largest lead: DET 1 · TOR 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 49%, DET 51% · Updated May 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.3 – 4.2 DET
Expected total
8.6
Blue JaysThe matchupTigers
+105Our fair odds−105
4.3Expected runs4.2
+0.05Power rating−0.00
4.2Runs / game4.2
4.5Allowed / game4.4
8.3Hits / game8.0
0.93Home runs / game0.91
3.0Walks drawn / game3.8
19−24Season record19−25
3−7Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · DET chance
Our model fair48.9%51.1%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10549%−12655.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−10551%+10548.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.1our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 12%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 17%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byDET wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more37%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more27%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORTrey Yesavage SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 0.68 ERA, 15 Kstarted
DETBrenan Hanifee RP · last 3 starts: 3.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·DET
May 13 vs TB
last game
May 14 at NYM
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
TOR·DET
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.2
runs / game
4.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.4
19−24
season record
19−25
13−11
home record
12−6
6−13
away record
7−19
W1
streak
L3
3−7
last 10
2−8
8.3
hits / game
8.0
0.93
home runs / game
0.91
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.8
6.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.63
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

TOR · DET · 51 days
Toronto Blue JaysDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 5−5
Jul 27, 2025at DETDET 10 − 4
Jul 26, 2025at DETTOR 6 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at DETTOR 6 − 2
Jul 24, 2025at DETTOR 11 − 4
May 18, 2025at TORDET 3 − 2
May 17, 2025at TORTOR 2 − 1
May 16, 2025at TORDET 5 − 4
Jul 21, 2024at TORTOR 5 − 4
Jul 20, 2024at TORDET 7 − 3
Jul 19, 2024at TORDET 5 − 4

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
May 13vs TB5 − 3W
May 12vs TB6 − 7L
May 11vs TB5 − 8L
May 10vs LAA1 − 6L
May 9vs LAA14 − 1W
May 8vs LAA2 − 0W
May 6at TB0 − 3L
May 5at TB3 − 4L
May 4at TB1 − 5L
May 3at MIN3 − 4L

DET · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
May 14at NYM4 − 9L
May 13at NYM2 − 3L
May 12at NYM2 − 10L
May 10at KC6 − 3W
May 9at KC1 − 5L
May 8at KC3 − 4L
May 6vs BOS0 − 4L
May 5vs BOS3 − 10L
May 4vs BOS4 − 5L
May 3vs TEX7 − 1W