bayesRatings

Angels at Blue Jays

MLB · Friday, May 8 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final LAA 0 – TOR 2
← MLB / May 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000000000061
TOR00200000231
Team box
LAA·TOR
6
hits
3
0
home runs
0
0
walks
6
11
strikeouts
9
168
pitches thrown
121
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jo AdellLAA2-3000
Kazuma OkamotoTOR1-3001
Mike TroutLAA1-4000
Vaughn GrissomLAA1-1000
Zach NetoLAA1-4000
Nolan SchanuelLAA1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Reid Detmers (L)LAA3.22263
Dylan Cease (W)TOR7.050010
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
LAA +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 2 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 41%, TOR 59% · Updated May 8

Expected margin
TOR by 0.9
Expected score
TOR 5.1 – 4.2 LAA
Expected total
9.3
AngelsThe matchupBlue Jays
+141Our fair odds−141
4.2Expected runs5.1
−0.22Power rating+0.05
4.5Runs / game4.0
4.8Allowed / game4.6
7.7Hits / game8.4
1.24Home runs / game0.92
3.9Walks drawn / game2.8
15−23Season record16−21
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · TOR chance
Our model fair41.5%58.5%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+14141%+12943.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−14159%−16161.7%———
SpreadTOR by 0.9
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.9our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 0.9 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 12%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more44%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more33%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 5.19 ERA, 18 Kstarted
TORDylan Cease SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.58 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·TOR
May 6 vs CHW
last game
May 6 at TB
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
LAA·TOR
−0.22
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.5
runs / game
4.0
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.6
15−23
season record
16−21
8−10
home record
10−8
7−13
away record
6−13
W2
streak
L4
3−7
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
8.4
1.24
home runs / game
0.92
3.9
walks drawn / game
2.8
9.8
batter strikeouts / game
6.7
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.55
errors / game
0.68

Rating Trend

LAA · TOR · 44 days
Los Angeles AngelsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 7−3
Apr 22at LAALAA 7 − 3
Apr 21at LAATOR 4 − 2
Apr 20at LAATOR 5 − 2
Jul 6, 2025at TORTOR 3 − 2
Jul 5, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 3
Jul 4, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 3
May 8, 2025at LAATOR 8 − 5
May 7, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 4
May 6, 2025at LAALAA 8 − 3
Aug 25, 2024at TORTOR 8 − 2

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
May 6vs CHW8 − 2W
May 5vs CHW4 − 3W
May 4vs CHW0 − 6L
May 3vs NYM1 − 5L
May 2vs NYM4 − 3W
May 1vs NYM3 − 4L
Apr 29at CHW2 − 3L
Apr 28at CHW2 − 5L
Apr 27at CHW7 − 8L
Apr 26at KC9 − 11L

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
May 6at TB0 − 3L
May 5at TB3 − 4L
May 4at TB1 − 5L
May 3at MIN3 − 4L
May 2at MIN11 − 4W
May 1at MIN7 − 3W
Apr 30at MIN1 − 7L
Apr 29vs BOS8 − 1W
Apr 28vs BOS3 − 0W
Apr 27vs BOS0 − 5L