bayesRatings

White Sox at Angels

MLB · Monday, May 4 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final CHW 6 – LAA 0
← MLB / May 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW2003000106160
LAA000000000050
Team box
CHW·LAA
16
hits
5
2
home runs
0
3
walks
0
9
strikeouts
14
113
pitches thrown
161
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Munetaka MurakamiCHW3-4312
Andrew BenintendiCHW4-5001
Miguel VargasCHW2-5111
Jarred KelenicCHW3-5000
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-5001
Chase MeidrothCHW1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Davis Martin (W)CHW7.050010
Jose Soriano (L)LAA4.08535

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +6
CHW +6
123456789
largest lead: LAA 0 · CHW 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 48%, LAA 52% · Updated May 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.7 – 4.5 LAA
Expected total
9.2
White SoxThe matchupAngels
+108Our fair odds−108
4.7Expected runs4.5
−0.21Power rating−0.22
4.2Runs / game4.5
4.7Allowed / game4.9
7.4Hits / game7.8
1.24Home runs / game1.23
4.0Walks drawn / game4.1
16−18Season record13−22
7−3Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · LAA chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+10848%+12444.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels−10852%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox−0.2our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 17%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byLAA wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more29%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWDavis Martin SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.42 ERA, 18 Kstarted
LAAJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 1.72 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·LAA
May 3 at SD
last game
May 3 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
CHW·LAA
−0.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
4.2
runs / game
4.5
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.9
16−18
season record
13−22
7−8
home record
6−9
9−10
away record
7−13
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
2−8
7.4
hits / game
7.8
1.24
home runs / game
1.23
4.0
walks drawn / game
4.1
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.9
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.50
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

CHW · LAA · 40 days
Chicago White SoxLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 3−7
Apr 29at CHWCHW 3 − 2
Apr 28at CHWCHW 5 − 2
Apr 27at CHWCHW 8 − 7
Aug 3, 2025at LAALAA 8 − 5
Aug 2, 2025at LAACHW 1 − 0
Aug 1, 2025at LAACHW 6 − 3
Mar 30, 2025at CHWLAA 3 − 2
Mar 29, 2025at CHWLAA 1 − 0
Mar 27, 2025at CHWCHW 8 − 1
Sep 26, 2024at CHWCHW 7 − 0

CHW · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
May 3at SD3 − 4L
May 2at SD4 − 0W
May 1at SD8 − 2W
Apr 29vs LAA3 − 2W
Apr 28vs LAA5 − 2W
Apr 27vs LAA8 − 7W
Apr 26vs WSH1 − 2L
Apr 25vs WSH3 − 6L
Apr 24vs WSH5 − 4W
Apr 23at ARI4 − 1W

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
May 3vs NYM1 − 5L
May 2vs NYM4 − 3W
May 1vs NYM3 − 4L
Apr 29at CHW2 − 3L
Apr 28at CHW2 − 5L
Apr 27at CHW7 − 8L
Apr 26at KC9 − 11L
Apr 25at KC1 − 12L
Apr 24at KC3 − 6L
Apr 22vs TOR7 − 3W