bayesRatings

White Sox at Padres

MLB · Saturday, May 2 · 7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final CHW 4 – SD 0
← MLB / May 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW000002200470
SD000000000060
Team box
CHW·SD
7
hits
6
0
home runs
0
3
walks
3
9
strikeouts
11
130
pitches thrown
128
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Miguel VargasCHW1-4002
Edgar QueroCHW1-4001
Tristan PetersCHW1-1101
Sam AntonacciCHW2-4100
Miguel AndujarSD2-4000
Jackson MerrillSD2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sean Burke (W)CHW6.04018
Seranthony Dominguez (S)CHW0.20001
Michael King (L)SD6.07435

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +4
CHW +4
123456789
largest lead: SD 0 · CHW 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 40%, SD 60% · Updated May 2

Expected margin
SD by 1.2
Expected score
SD 4.6 – 3.4 CHW
Expected total
8.1
White SoxThe matchupPadres
+150Our fair odds−150
3.4Expected runs4.6
−0.22Power rating+0.10
4.3Runs / game4.5
4.8Allowed / game4.5
7.4Hits / game7.7
1.25Home runs / game0.94
4.1Walks drawn / game3.4
15−17Season record19−12
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · SD chance
Our model fair40.0%60.0%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+15040%+14640.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−15060%−17563.6%———
SpreadSD by 1.2
CHWChicago White Sox+1.2our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 1.2 expected
Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 14%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%
← CHW wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more46%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more35%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWSean Burke SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 8 Kstarted
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·SD
May 1 at SD
last game
May 1 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
CHW·SD
−0.22
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.3
runs / game
4.5
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.5
15−17
season record
19−12
7−8
home record
10−7
8−9
away record
9−5
W4
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
5−5
7.4
hits / game
7.7
1.25
home runs / game
0.94
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.53
errors / game
0.26

Rating Trend

CHW · SD · 38 days
Chicago White SoxSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 8−2
May 1at SDCHW 8 − 2
Sep 21, 2025at CHWSD 3 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at CHWSD 7 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at CHWCHW 4 − 3
Sep 22, 2024at SDSD 4 − 2
Sep 21, 2024at SDSD 6 − 2
Sep 20, 2024at SDSD 3 − 2
Oct 1, 2023at CHWSD 2 − 1
Sep 30, 2023at CHWSD 6 − 1
Sep 29, 2023at CHWSD 3 − 2

CHW · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
May 1at SD8 − 2W
Apr 29vs LAA3 − 2W
Apr 28vs LAA5 − 2W
Apr 27vs LAA8 − 7W
Apr 26vs WSH1 − 2L
Apr 25vs WSH3 − 6L
Apr 24vs WSH5 − 4W
Apr 23at ARI4 − 1W
Apr 22at ARI7 − 11L
Apr 21at ARI11 − 5W

SD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
May 1vs CHW2 − 8L
Apr 29vs CHC4 − 5L
Apr 28vs CHC3 − 8L
Apr 27vs CHC9 − 7W
Apr 26at ARI7 − 12L
Apr 25at ARI6 − 4W
Apr 23at COL10 − 8W
Apr 22at COL3 − 8L
Apr 21at COL1 − 0W
Apr 19at LAA2 − 1W