bayesRatings

White Sox at Padres

MLB · Friday, May 1 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final CHW 8 – SD 2
← MLB / May 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW060010010880
SD000000020260
Team box
CHW·SD
8
hits
6
2
home runs
0
7
walks
4
5
strikeouts
5
139
pitches thrown
170
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-3113
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-3211
Sam AntonacciCHW2-4101
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD3-3100
Austin HaysCHW1-4101
Tristan PetersCHW1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Noah Schultz (W)CHW6.02032
German Marquez (L)SD5.05752

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +8
CHW +8
123456789
largest lead: SD 0 · CHW 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 39%, SD 61% · Updated May 1

Expected margin
SD by 1.4
Expected score
SD 4.8 – 3.3 CHW
Expected total
8.1
White SoxThe matchupPadres
+158Our fair odds−158
3.3Expected runs4.8
−0.25Power rating+0.13
4.2Runs / game4.6
4.9Allowed / game4.4
7.4Hits / game7.8
1.23Home runs / game0.97
4.0Walks drawn / game3.4
14−17Season record19−11
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · SD chance
Our model fair38.7%61.3%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+15839%+11945.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−15861%−14258.7%———
SpreadSD by 1.4
CHWChicago White Sox+1.4our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 1.4 expected
Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 13%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 12%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%
← CHW wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more48%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more36%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWNoah Schultz SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 18 Kstarted
SDGerman Marquez SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·SD
Apr 29 vs LAA
last game
Apr 29 vs CHC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
CHW·SD
−0.25
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
4.2
runs / game
4.6
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.4
14−17
season record
19−11
7−8
home record
10−6
7−9
away record
9−5
W3
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
6−4
7.4
hits / game
7.8
1.23
home runs / game
0.97
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.55
errors / game
0.27

Rating Trend

CHW · SD · 37 days
Chicago White SoxSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 8−2
Sep 21, 2025at CHWSD 3 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at CHWSD 7 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at CHWCHW 4 − 3
Sep 22, 2024at SDSD 4 − 2
Sep 21, 2024at SDSD 6 − 2
Sep 20, 2024at SDSD 3 − 2
Oct 1, 2023at CHWSD 2 − 1
Sep 30, 2023at CHWSD 6 − 1
Sep 29, 2023at CHWSD 3 − 2
Oct 2, 2022at SDCHW 2 − 1

CHW · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Apr 29vs LAA3 − 2W
Apr 28vs LAA5 − 2W
Apr 27vs LAA8 − 7W
Apr 26vs WSH1 − 2L
Apr 25vs WSH3 − 6L
Apr 24vs WSH5 − 4W
Apr 23at ARI4 − 1W
Apr 22at ARI7 − 11L
Apr 21at ARI11 − 5W
Apr 19at ATH7 − 4W

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Apr 29vs CHC4 − 5L
Apr 28vs CHC3 − 8L
Apr 27vs CHC9 − 7W
Apr 26at ARI7 − 12L
Apr 25at ARI6 − 4W
Apr 23at COL10 − 8W
Apr 22at COL3 − 8L
Apr 21at COL1 − 0W
Apr 19at LAA2 − 1W
Apr 18at LAA4 − 1W