bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Twins

MLB · Sunday, May 3 · 11:45 AM CT · Target Field · Final TOR 3 – MIN 4
← MLB / May 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR0000010023110
MIN10003000490
Team box
TOR·MIN
11
hits
9
1
home runs
0
3
walks
4
9
strikeouts
9
140
pitches thrown
142
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kazuma OkamotoTOR1-4112
Matt WallnerMIN2-4001
Luke KeaschallMIN2-4101
Jesus SanchezTOR3-5000
Daulton VarshoTOR2-3001
Victor CaratiniMIN1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trey Yesavage (L)TOR4.05136
Joe RyanMIN0.10011
Andrew Morris (W)MIN3.22013
Justin Topa (S)MIN1.04200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +4
TOR +4
123456789
largest lead: MIN 4 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 53%, MIN 47% · Updated May 3

Expected margin
TOR by 0.8
Expected score
TOR 5.3 – 4.5 MIN
Expected total
9.8
Blue JaysThe matchupTwins
−114Our fair odds+114
5.3Expected runs4.5
+0.08Power rating−0.13
4.2Runs / game4.7
4.6Allowed / game4.9
8.4Hits / game7.8
0.97Home runs / game1.18
2.9Walks drawn / game4.0
16−17Season record14−20
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · MIN chance
Our model fair53.3%46.7%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:45 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays−11453%−11252.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+11447%−10751.8%———
SpreadTOR by 0.8
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.8our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 0.8 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 8%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byMIN wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more44%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more34%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORTrey Yesavage SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 1.65 ERA, 20 Kstarted
MINJoe Ryan SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·MIN
May 2 at MIN
last game
May 2 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
TOR·MIN
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
4.2
runs / game
4.7
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.9
16−17
season record
14−20
10−8
home record
9−10
6−9
away record
5−10
W2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
2−8
8.4
hits / game
7.8
0.97
home runs / game
1.18
2.9
walks drawn / game
4.0
6.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.70
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

TOR · MIN · 39 days
Toronto Blue JaysMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
May 2at MINTOR 11 − 4
May 1at MINTOR 7 − 3
Apr 30at MINMIN 7 − 1
Apr 12at TORMIN 8 − 2
Apr 11at TORMIN 7 − 4
Apr 10at TORTOR 10 − 4
Aug 27, 2025at TORTOR 9 − 8
Aug 26, 2025at TORMIN 7 − 5
Aug 25, 2025at TORTOR 10 − 4
Jun 8, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 3

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
May 2at MIN11 − 4W
May 1at MIN7 − 3W
Apr 30at MIN1 − 7L
Apr 29vs BOS8 − 1W
Apr 28vs BOS3 − 0W
Apr 27vs BOS0 − 5L
Apr 26vs CLE4 − 2W
Apr 25vs CLE5 − 3W
Apr 24vs CLE6 − 8L
Apr 22at LAA3 − 7L

MIN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
May 2vs TOR4 − 11L
May 1vs TOR3 − 7L
Apr 30vs TOR7 − 1W
Apr 29vs SEA3 − 5L
Apr 28vs SEA1 − 7L
Apr 27vs SEA11 − 4W
Apr 26at TB2 − 4L
Apr 25at TB1 − 6L
Apr 24at TB2 − 6L
Apr 23at NYM8 − 10L