bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Twins

MLB · Friday, May 1 · 7:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final TOR 7 – MIN 3
← MLB / May 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR0202201007110
MIN0020001003101
Team box
TOR·MIN
11
hits
10
2
home runs
1
2
walks
2
3
strikeouts
10
140
pitches thrown
138
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kazuma OkamotoTOR2-4323
Byron BuxtonMIN2-4112
Yohendrick PinangoTOR3-4002
Austin MartinMIN3-5000
Lenyn SosaTOR3-4200
Ryan JeffersMIN1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Patrick Corbin (W)TOR5.16214
Simeon Woods Richardson (L)MIN4.29412

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +5
TOR +5
123456789
largest lead: MIN 0 · TOR 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 52%, MIN 48% · Updated May 1

Expected margin
TOR by 0.6
Expected score
TOR 5.0 – 4.5 MIN
Expected total
9.5
Blue JaysThe matchupTwins
−109Our fair odds+109
5.0Expected runs4.5
+0.06Power rating−0.11
3.9Runs / game4.8
4.7Allowed / game4.7
8.3Hits / game7.8
0.84Home runs / game1.19
2.8Walks drawn / game4.2
14−17Season record14−18
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · MIN chance
Our model fair52.1%47.9%
Kalshi52.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays−10952%−11252.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+10948%−11252.7%———
SpreadTOR by 0.6
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.6our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 0.6 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byMIN wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more42%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more32%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORPatrick Corbin SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 13 Kstarted
MINSimeon Woods Richardson SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 8.16 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·MIN
Apr 30 at MIN
last game
Apr 30 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
TOR·MIN
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
3.9
runs / game
4.8
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.7
14−17
season record
14−18
10−8
home record
9−8
4−9
away record
5−10
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
8.3
hits / game
7.8
0.84
home runs / game
1.19
2.8
walks drawn / game
4.2
6.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.71
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

TOR · MIN · 37 days
Toronto Blue JaysMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
Apr 30at MINMIN 7 − 1
Apr 12at TORMIN 8 − 2
Apr 11at TORMIN 7 − 4
Apr 10at TORTOR 10 − 4
Aug 27, 2025at TORTOR 9 − 8
Aug 26, 2025at TORMIN 7 − 5
Aug 25, 2025at TORTOR 10 − 4
Jun 8, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 3
Jun 7, 2025at MINTOR 5 − 4
Jun 6, 2025at MINTOR 6 − 4

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 30at MIN1 − 7L
Apr 29vs BOS8 − 1W
Apr 28vs BOS3 − 0W
Apr 27vs BOS0 − 5L
Apr 26vs CLE4 − 2W
Apr 25vs CLE5 − 3W
Apr 24vs CLE6 − 8L
Apr 22at LAA3 − 7L
Apr 21at LAA4 − 2W
Apr 20at LAA5 − 2W

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 30vs TOR7 − 1W
Apr 29vs SEA3 − 5L
Apr 28vs SEA1 − 7L
Apr 27vs SEA11 − 4W
Apr 26at TB2 − 4L
Apr 25at TB1 − 6L
Apr 24at TB2 − 6L
Apr 23at NYM8 − 10L
Apr 22at NYM2 − 3L
Apr 21at NYM5 − 3W