bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Twins

MLB · Thursday, Apr 30 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final TOR 1 – MIN 7
← MLB / Apr 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000100000162
MIN00020203770
Team box
TOR·MIN
6
hits
7
1
home runs
2
3
walks
4
2
strikeouts
6
144
pitches thrown
133
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Byron BuxtonMIN3-4211
Ryan JeffersMIN2-4212
Daulton VarshoTOR1-4111
Josh BellMIN1-4101
Austin MartinMIN1-3001
George SpringerTOR2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kevin Gausman (L)TOR5.24422
Bailey Ober (W)MIN6.04122

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +6
TOR +6
123456789
largest lead: MIN 6 · TOR 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 53%, MIN 47% · Updated Apr 30

Expected margin
TOR by 0.7
Expected score
TOR 5.1 – 4.5 MIN
Expected total
9.6
Blue JaysThe matchupTwins
−112Our fair odds+112
5.1Expected runs4.5
+0.07Power rating−0.13
4.0Runs / game4.7
4.6Allowed / game4.8
8.4Hits / game7.8
0.83Home runs / game1.16
2.8Walks drawn / game4.2
14−16Season record13−18
7−3Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · MIN chance
Our model fair52.8%47.2%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays−11253%−13757.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+11247%+11446.7%———
SpreadTOR by 0.7
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.7our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 0.7 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byMIN wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more43%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more33%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 12 Kstarted
MINBailey Ober SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 2.95 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·MIN
Apr 29 vs BOS
last game
Apr 29 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
TOR·MIN
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
4.0
runs / game
4.7
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.8
14−16
season record
13−18
10−8
home record
8−8
4−8
away record
5−10
W2
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
2−8
8.4
hits / game
7.8
0.83
home runs / game
1.16
2.8
walks drawn / game
4.2
6.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.67
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

TOR · MIN · 36 days
Toronto Blue JaysMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
Apr 12at TORMIN 8 − 2
Apr 11at TORMIN 7 − 4
Apr 10at TORTOR 10 − 4
Aug 27, 2025at TORTOR 9 − 8
Aug 26, 2025at TORMIN 7 − 5
Aug 25, 2025at TORTOR 10 − 4
Jun 8, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 3
Jun 7, 2025at MINTOR 5 − 4
Jun 6, 2025at MINTOR 6 − 4
Sep 1, 2024at MINMIN 4 − 3

TOR · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Apr 29vs BOS8 − 1W
Apr 28vs BOS3 − 0W
Apr 27vs BOS0 − 5L
Apr 26vs CLE4 − 2W
Apr 25vs CLE5 − 3W
Apr 24vs CLE6 − 8L
Apr 22at LAA3 − 7L
Apr 21at LAA4 − 2W
Apr 20at LAA5 − 2W
Apr 19at ARI10 − 4W

MIN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Apr 29vs SEA3 − 5L
Apr 28vs SEA1 − 7L
Apr 27vs SEA11 − 4W
Apr 26at TB2 − 4L
Apr 25at TB1 − 6L
Apr 24at TB2 − 6L
Apr 23at NYM8 − 10L
Apr 22at NYM2 − 3L
Apr 21at NYM5 − 3W
Apr 19vs CIN4 − 7L