bayesRatings

White Sox at Angels

MLB · Wednesday, May 6 · 3:07 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final CHW 2 – LAA 8
← MLB / May 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW010000100240
LAA05020001880
Team box
CHW·LAA
4
hits
8
0
home runs
1
5
walks
6
10
strikeouts
5
137
pitches thrown
149
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Travis d'ArnaudLAA1-2113
Zach NetoLAA1-2202
Chase MeidrothCHW2-3100
Mike TroutLAA1-5001
Jorge SolerLAA1-1101
Bryce TeodosioLAA2-3200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Noah Schultz (L)CHW3.27743
Walbert Urena (W)LAA6.02135

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +6
CHW +6
123456789
largest lead: LAA 6 · CHW 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 49%, LAA 51% · Updated May 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.7 – 4.3 LAA
Expected total
9.0
White SoxThe matchupAngels
+106Our fair odds−106
4.7Expected runs4.3
−0.20Power rating−0.23
4.2Runs / game4.4
4.5Allowed / game4.9
7.7Hits / game7.7
1.25Home runs / game1.24
4.0Walks drawn / game3.9
17−19Season record14−23
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · LAA chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+10649%−11653.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels−10651%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox−0.3our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 17%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byLAA wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more39%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more29%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWNoah Schultz SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA, 16 Kstarted
LAAWalbert Urena SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.30 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·LAA
May 5 at LAA
last game
May 5 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
CHW·LAA
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.23
4.2
runs / game
4.4
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.9
17−19
season record
14−23
7−8
home record
7−10
10−11
away record
7−13
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
2−8
7.7
hits / game
7.7
1.25
home runs / game
1.24
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.9
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.9
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.47
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

CHW · LAA · 42 days
Chicago White SoxLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 4−6
May 5at LAALAA 4 − 3
May 4at LAACHW 6 − 0
Apr 29at CHWCHW 3 − 2
Apr 28at CHWCHW 5 − 2
Apr 27at CHWCHW 8 − 7
Aug 3, 2025at LAALAA 8 − 5
Aug 2, 2025at LAACHW 1 − 0
Aug 1, 2025at LAACHW 6 − 3
Mar 30, 2025at CHWLAA 3 − 2
Mar 29, 2025at CHWLAA 1 − 0

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 5at LAA3 − 4L
May 4at LAA6 − 0W
May 3at SD3 − 4L
May 2at SD4 − 0W
May 1at SD8 − 2W
Apr 29vs LAA3 − 2W
Apr 28vs LAA5 − 2W
Apr 27vs LAA8 − 7W
Apr 26vs WSH1 − 2L
Apr 25vs WSH3 − 6L

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
May 5vs CHW4 − 3W
May 4vs CHW0 − 6L
May 3vs NYM1 − 5L
May 2vs NYM4 − 3W
May 1vs NYM3 − 4L
Apr 29at CHW2 − 3L
Apr 28at CHW2 − 5L
Apr 27at CHW7 − 8L
Apr 26at KC9 − 11L
Apr 25at KC1 − 12L