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White Sox at Angels

MLB · Tuesday, May 5 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final CHW 3 – LAA 4
← MLB / May 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW200000100380
LAA20002000472
Team box
CHW·LAA
8
hits
7
1
home runs
3
4
walks
2
9
strikeouts
5
116
pitches thrown
152
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Chase MeidrothCHW2-5211
Mike TroutLAA2-2211
Zach NetoLAA2-4111
Jorge SolerLAA1-4111
Randal GrichukCHW1-2001
Andrew BenintendiCHW2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Erick Fedde (L)CHW4.26422
Sam AldegheriLAA4.04220
Jose Fermin (W)LAA1.01002
Ryan Zeferjahn (S)LAA1.10023

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
CHW +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 2 · CHW 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 49%, LAA 51% · Updated May 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.7 – 4.4 LAA
Expected total
9.1
White SoxThe matchupAngels
+104Our fair odds−104
4.7Expected runs4.4
−0.19Power rating−0.24
4.3Runs / game4.4
4.5Allowed / game5.0
7.7Hits / game7.8
1.26Home runs / game1.19
4.0Walks drawn / game3.9
17−18Season record13−23
7−3Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · LAA chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+10449%−10751.8%———
LAALos Angeles Angels−10451%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox−0.3our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 17%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byLAA wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more39%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more29%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWErick Fedde SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 13 Kstarted
LAASam Aldegheri SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 8.74 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·LAA
May 4 at LAA
last game
May 4 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
CHW·LAA
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.24
4.3
runs / game
4.4
4.5
runs allowed / game
5.0
17−18
season record
13−23
7−8
home record
6−10
10−10
away record
7−13
W1
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
1−9
7.7
hits / game
7.8
1.26
home runs / game
1.19
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.9
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
10.0
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.49
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

CHW · LAA · 41 days
Chicago White SoxLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 3−7
May 4at LAACHW 6 − 0
Apr 29at CHWCHW 3 − 2
Apr 28at CHWCHW 5 − 2
Apr 27at CHWCHW 8 − 7
Aug 3, 2025at LAALAA 8 − 5
Aug 2, 2025at LAACHW 1 − 0
Aug 1, 2025at LAACHW 6 − 3
Mar 30, 2025at CHWLAA 3 − 2
Mar 29, 2025at CHWLAA 1 − 0
Mar 27, 2025at CHWCHW 8 − 1

CHW · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
May 4at LAA6 − 0W
May 3at SD3 − 4L
May 2at SD4 − 0W
May 1at SD8 − 2W
Apr 29vs LAA3 − 2W
Apr 28vs LAA5 − 2W
Apr 27vs LAA8 − 7W
Apr 26vs WSH1 − 2L
Apr 25vs WSH3 − 6L
Apr 24vs WSH5 − 4W

LAA · Last 10

1−9 · streak L2
May 4vs CHW0 − 6L
May 3vs NYM1 − 5L
May 2vs NYM4 − 3W
May 1vs NYM3 − 4L
Apr 29at CHW2 − 3L
Apr 28at CHW2 − 5L
Apr 27at CHW7 − 8L
Apr 26at KC9 − 11L
Apr 25at KC1 − 12L
Apr 24at KC3 − 6L