bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Rays

MLB · Wednesday, May 6 · 12:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final TOR 0 – TB 3
← MLB / May 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000000000041
TB00020001360
Team box
TOR·TB
4
hits
6
0
home runs
0
1
walks
5
7
strikeouts
3
117
pitches thrown
116
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Chandler SimpsonTB1-4001
Jonny DeLucaTB1-4101
Myles StrawTOR2-3000
Yandy DiazTB1-4000
Cedric MullinsTB1-1100
Taylor WallsTB1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Patrick Corbin (L)TOR5.15221
Shane McClanahan (W)TB5.22014
Ian Seymour (S)TB1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
TOR +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 3 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 47%, TB 53% · Updated May 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.2 – 4.1 TOR
Expected total
8.3
Blue JaysThe matchupRays
+111Our fair odds−111
4.1Expected runs4.2
+0.06Power rating+0.07
4.1Runs / game4.5
4.6Allowed / game4.1
8.5Hits / game8.6
0.94Home runs / game0.86
2.9Walks drawn / game3.3
16−20Season record23−12
5−5Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · TB chance
Our model fair47.4%52.6%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+11147%+11446.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11153%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.1our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 13%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 17%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more36%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more26%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORPatrick Corbin SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 11 Kstarted
TBShane McClanahan SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·TB
May 5 at TB
last game
May 5 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
TOR·TB
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.1
runs / game
4.5
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.1
16−20
season record
23−12
10−8
home record
13−4
6−12
away record
10−8
L3
streak
W5
5−5
last 10
9−1
8.5
hits / game
8.6
0.94
home runs / game
0.86
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.3
6.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.67
errors / game
0.71

Rating Trend

TOR · TB · 42 days
Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
May 5at TBTB 4 − 3
May 4at TBTB 5 − 1
Sep 28, 2025at TORTOR 13 − 4
Sep 27, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 2
Sep 18, 2025at TBTB 4 − 0
Sep 17, 2025at TBTB 2 − 1
Sep 16, 2025at TBTOR 6 − 5
Sep 15, 2025at TBTOR 2 − 1
May 25, 2025at TBTB 13 − 0

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
May 5at TB3 − 4L
May 4at TB1 − 5L
May 3at MIN3 − 4L
May 2at MIN11 − 4W
May 1at MIN7 − 3W
Apr 30at MIN1 − 7L
Apr 29vs BOS8 − 1W
Apr 28vs BOS3 − 0W
Apr 27vs BOS0 − 5L
Apr 26vs CLE4 − 2W

TB · Last 10

9−1 · streak W5
May 5vs TOR4 − 3W
May 4vs TOR5 − 1W
May 3vs SF2 − 1W
May 2vs SF5 − 1W
May 1vs SF3 − 0W
Apr 29at CLE1 − 3L
Apr 28at CLE1 − 0W
Apr 27at CLE3 − 2W
Apr 26vs MIN4 − 2W
Apr 25vs MIN6 − 1W