bayesRatings

Giants at Rays

MLB · Sunday, May 3 · 12:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final SF 1 – TB 2
← MLB / May 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
SF1000000000161
TB0000000101280
Team box
SF·TB
6
hits
8
0
home runs
0
2
walks
4
5
strikeouts
6
145
pitches thrown
134
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jonathan ArandaTB4-5001
Casey SchmittSF2-4001
Eric HaaseSF1-4000
Willy AdamesSF1-4000
Rafael DeversSF1-3100
Heliot RamosSF1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler MahleSF5.14015
Caleb Kilian (L)SF1.02010
Steven MatzTB6.04121
Ian Seymour (W)TB1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
SF +3
12345678910
largest lead: TB 1 · SF 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 45%, TB 55% · Updated May 3

Expected margin
TB by 0.7
Expected score
TB 4.3 – 3.6 SF
Expected total
7.9
GiantsThe matchupRays
+121Our fair odds−121
3.6Expected runs4.3
−0.07Power rating+0.05
3.2Runs / game4.5
4.2Allowed / game4.3
8.2Hits / game8.4
0.58Home runs / game0.91
2.0Walks drawn / game3.4
13−20Season record20−12
3−7Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · TB chance
Our model fair45.2%54.8%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+12145%+10548.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−12155%−13156.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.7
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.7our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.7 expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 17%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more41%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more30%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 7.31 ERA, 14 Kstarted
TBSteven Matz RP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.70 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·TB
May 2 at TB
last game
May 2 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
SF·TB
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
3.2
runs / game
4.5
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.3
13−20
season record
20−12
7−9
home record
10−4
6−11
away record
10−8
L5
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
8−2
8.2
hits / game
8.4
0.58
home runs / game
0.91
2.0
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.48
errors / game
0.78

Rating Trend

SF · TB · 39 days
San Francisco GiantsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 7−3
May 2at TBTB 5 − 1
May 1at TBTB 3 − 0
Aug 17, 2025at SFSF 7 − 1
Aug 16, 2025at SFTB 2 − 1
Aug 15, 2025at SFTB 7 − 6
Apr 14, 2024at TBTB 9 − 4
Apr 13, 2024at TBSF 11 − 2
Apr 12, 2024at TBTB 2 − 1
Aug 16, 2023at SFTB 6 − 1
Aug 15, 2023at SFSF 7 − 0

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
May 2at TB1 − 5L
May 1at TB0 − 3L
Apr 30at PHI5 − 6L
Apr 30at PHI2 − 3L
Apr 28at PHI0 − 7L
Apr 26vs MIA6 − 3W
Apr 25vs MIA6 − 2W
Apr 24vs MIA4 − 9L
Apr 23vs LAD0 − 3L
Apr 22vs LAD3 − 0W

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
May 2vs SF5 − 1W
May 1vs SF3 − 0W
Apr 29at CLE1 − 3L
Apr 28at CLE1 − 0W
Apr 27at CLE3 − 2W
Apr 26vs MIN4 − 2W
Apr 25vs MIN6 − 1W
Apr 24vs MIN6 − 2W
Apr 22vs CIN6 − 1W
Apr 21vs CIN6 − 12L