bayesRatings

Marlins at Giants

MLB · Sunday, Apr 26 · 3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final MIA 3 – SF 6
← MLB / Apr 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA030000000321
SF00100230680
Team box
MIA·SF
2
hits
8
1
home runs
1
2
walks
4
7
strikeouts
6
127
pitches thrown
115
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Graham PauleyMIA1-3113
Casey SchmittSF1-3213
Jung Hoo LeeSF4-5200
Drew GilbertSF2-4001
Rafael DeversSF1-3101
Liam HicksMIA1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max MeyerMIA5.04015
Andrew Nardi (L)MIA1.02321
Landen Roupp (W)SF7.22326
Erik Miller (S)SF1.10001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +3
MIA +3
123456789
largest lead: SF 3 · MIA 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 47%, SF 53% · Updated Apr 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 4.4 – 4.0 MIA
Expected total
8.3
MarlinsThe matchupGiants
+114Our fair odds−114
4.0Expected runs4.4
−0.07Power rating−0.02
4.6Runs / game3.4
4.4Allowed / game4.1
8.7Hits / game8.4
0.70Home runs / game0.67
3.5Walks drawn / game2.0
13−14Season record12−15
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · SF chance
Our model fair46.8%53.2%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+11447%+10548.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−11453%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins+0.4our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 14%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 11%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more39%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more28%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAMax Meyer SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 17 Kstarted
SFLanden Roupp SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.06 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·SF
Apr 25 at SF
last game
Apr 25 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 27+ games
MIA·SF
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.6
runs / game
3.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.1
13−14
season record
12−15
10−6
home record
6−9
3−8
away record
6−6
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.7
hits / game
8.4
0.70
home runs / game
0.67
3.5
walks drawn / game
2.0
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.74
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

MIA · SF · 32 days
Miami MarlinsSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 3−7
Apr 25at SFSF 6 − 2
Apr 24at SFMIA 9 − 4
Jun 26, 2025at SFMIA 12 − 5
Jun 25, 2025at SFMIA 8 − 5
Jun 24, 2025at SFMIA 4 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at MIASF 4 − 2
May 31, 2025at MIAMIA 1 − 0
May 30, 2025at MIASF 2 − 0
Sep 1, 2024at SFMIA 7 − 5
Aug 31, 2024at SFMIA 4 − 3

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 25at SF2 − 6L
Apr 24at SF9 − 4W
Apr 22vs STL4 − 1W
Apr 21vs STL3 − 5L
Apr 20vs STL5 − 3W
Apr 19vs MIL5 − 3W
Apr 18vs MIL2 − 5L
Apr 17vs MIL5 − 7L
Apr 15at ATL3 − 6L
Apr 14at ATL5 − 6L

SF · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 25vs MIA6 − 2W
Apr 24vs MIA4 − 9L
Apr 23vs LAD0 − 3L
Apr 22vs LAD3 − 0W
Apr 21vs LAD3 − 1W
Apr 19at WSH0 − 3L
Apr 18at WSH7 − 6W
Apr 17at WSH10 − 5W
Apr 16at CIN3 − 0W
Apr 15at CIN3 − 8L