bayesRatings

Marlins at Giants

MLB · Friday, Apr 24 · 9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final MIA 9 – SF 4
← MLB / Apr 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA3113010009160
SF0000300104110
Team box
MIA·SF
16
hits
11
2
home runs
1
4
walks
2
6
strikeouts
6
153
pitches thrown
173
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Connor NorbyMIA1-5113
Liam HicksMIA1-4113
Jung Hoo LeeSF3-4111
Xavier EdwardsMIA3-4101
Otto LopezMIA3-5001
Luis ArraezSF3-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sandy Alcantara (W)MIA6.09314
Adrian Houser (L)SF4.011813

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +8
MIA +8
123456789
largest lead: SF 0 · MIA 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 47%, SF 53% · Updated Apr 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 4.4 – 4.0 MIA
Expected total
8.3
MarlinsThe matchupGiants
+115Our fair odds−115
4.0Expected runs4.4
−0.08Power rating−0.02
4.5Runs / game3.2
4.4Allowed / game4.0
8.5Hits / game8.2
0.68Home runs / game0.56
3.4Walks drawn / game1.9
12−13Season record11−14
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · SF chance
Our model fair46.6%53.4%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+11547%−11252.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−11553%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins+0.4our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 11%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more39%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more28%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 5.12 ERA, 11 Kstarted
SFAdrian Houser SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 6.61 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·SF
Apr 22 vs STL
last game
Apr 23 vs LAD
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
MIA·SF
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.5
runs / game
3.2
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.0
12−13
season record
11−14
10−6
home record
5−8
2−7
away record
6−6
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.5
hits / game
8.2
0.68
home runs / game
0.56
3.4
walks drawn / game
1.9
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.80
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

MIA · SF · 30 days
Miami MarlinsSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 4−6
Jun 26, 2025at SFMIA 12 − 5
Jun 25, 2025at SFMIA 8 − 5
Jun 24, 2025at SFMIA 4 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at MIASF 4 − 2
May 31, 2025at MIAMIA 1 − 0
May 30, 2025at MIASF 2 − 0
Sep 1, 2024at SFMIA 7 − 5
Aug 31, 2024at SFMIA 4 − 3
Aug 30, 2024at SFSF 3 − 1
Apr 17, 2024at MIASF 3 − 1

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 22vs STL4 − 1W
Apr 21vs STL3 − 5L
Apr 20vs STL5 − 3W
Apr 19vs MIL5 − 3W
Apr 18vs MIL2 − 5L
Apr 17vs MIL5 − 7L
Apr 15at ATL3 − 6L
Apr 14at ATL5 − 6L
Apr 13at ATL10 − 4W
Apr 12at DET2 − 8L

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 23vs LAD0 − 3L
Apr 22vs LAD3 − 0W
Apr 21vs LAD3 − 1W
Apr 19at WSH0 − 3L
Apr 18at WSH7 − 6W
Apr 17at WSH10 − 5W
Apr 16at CIN3 − 0W
Apr 15at CIN3 − 8L
Apr 14at CIN1 − 2L
Apr 12at BAL2 − 6L