bayesRatings

Giants at Rays

MLB · Friday, May 1 · 6:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final SF 0 – TB 3
← MLB / May 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000000000060
TB01010100350
Team box
SF·TB
6
hits
5
0
home runs
2
0
walks
0
7
strikeouts
6
123
pitches thrown
109
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yandy DiazTB1-2111
Junior CamineroTB1-3111
Taylor WallsTB2-3100
Chandler SimpsonTB1-3001
Willy AdamesSF1-3000
Rafael DeversSF1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Robbie Ray (L)SF6.14305
Shane McClanahan (W)TB6.05005
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 3 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 46%, TB 54% · Updated May 1

Expected margin
TB by 0.5
Expected score
TB 4.3 – 3.8 SF
Expected total
8.1
GiantsThe matchupRays
+117Our fair odds−117
3.8Expected runs4.3
−0.04Power rating+0.03
3.4Runs / game4.6
4.2Allowed / game4.6
8.4Hits / game8.5
0.61Home runs / game0.90
2.1Walks drawn / game3.4
13−18Season record18−12
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · TB chance
Our model fair46.1%53.9%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11746%+11945.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11754%−14258.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.5
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.5our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.5 expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more40%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more29%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFRobbie Ray SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 17 Kstarted
TBShane McClanahan SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·TB
Apr 30 at PHI
last game
Apr 29 at CLE
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
SF·TB
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
3.4
runs / game
4.6
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.6
13−18
season record
18−12
7−9
home record
8−4
6−9
away record
10−8
L3
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
8.5
0.61
home runs / game
0.90
2.1
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.48
errors / game
0.83

Rating Trend

SF · TB · 37 days
San Francisco GiantsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · TB 6−3
Aug 17, 2025at SFSF 7 − 1
Aug 16, 2025at SFTB 2 − 1
Aug 15, 2025at SFTB 7 − 6
Apr 14, 2024at TBTB 9 − 4
Apr 13, 2024at TBSF 11 − 2
Apr 12, 2024at TBTB 2 − 1
Aug 16, 2023at SFTB 6 − 1
Aug 15, 2023at SFSF 7 − 0
Aug 14, 2023at SFTB 10 − 2

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Apr 30at PHI5 − 6L
Apr 30at PHI2 − 3L
Apr 28at PHI0 − 7L
Apr 26vs MIA6 − 3W
Apr 25vs MIA6 − 2W
Apr 24vs MIA4 − 9L
Apr 23vs LAD0 − 3L
Apr 22vs LAD3 − 0W
Apr 21vs LAD3 − 1W
Apr 19at WSH0 − 3L

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 29at CLE1 − 3L
Apr 28at CLE1 − 0W
Apr 27at CLE3 − 2W
Apr 26vs MIN4 − 2W
Apr 25vs MIN6 − 1W
Apr 24vs MIN6 − 2W
Apr 22vs CIN6 − 1W
Apr 21vs CIN6 − 12L
Apr 20vs CIN1 − 6L
Apr 19at PIT3 − 6L