bayesRatings

Giants at Phillies

MLB · Thursday, Apr 30 · 4:35 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final SF 5 – PHI 6
← MLB / Apr 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
SF00011200105130
PHI2000200011690
Team box
SF·PHI
13
hits
9
0
home runs
2
5
walks
6
12
strikeouts
4
148
pitches thrown
193
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle SchwarberPHI4-4212
Trea TurnerPHI2-5211
Luis ArraezSF2-6002
Adolis GarciaPHI1-4102
Drew GilbertSF3-5100
Jung Hoo LeeSF2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Adrian HouserSF4.24322
Matt Gage (L)SF0.20000
Tim MayzaPHI2.02012
Chase Shugart (W)PHI1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
SF +3
12345678910
largest lead: PHI 2 · SF 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 47%, PHI 53% · Updated Apr 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.4 – 4.0 SF
Expected total
8.4
GiantsThe matchupPhillies
+115Our fair odds−115
4.0Expected runs4.4
−0.03Power rating+0.03
3.3Runs / game3.8
4.2Allowed / game5.4
8.2Hits / game7.6
0.66Home runs / game1.03
2.0Walks drawn / game3.2
13−16Season record10−19
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · PHI chance
Our model fair46.6%53.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11547%————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11553%————
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.4our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more39%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more28%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFAdrian Houser SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 10.05 ERA, 7 Kstarted
PHITim Mayza RP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·PHI
Apr 30 at PHI
last game
Apr 30 vs SF
same day
days of rest
same day
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
SF·PHI
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
3.3
runs / game
3.8
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.4
13−16
season record
10−19
7−9
home record
6−10
6−7
away record
4−9
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
2−8
8.2
hits / game
7.6
0.66
home runs / game
1.03
2.0
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.52
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

SF · PHI · 36 days
San Francisco GiantsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 5−5
Apr 28at PHIPHI 7 − 0
Apr 8at SFSF 5 − 0
Apr 7at SFSF 6 − 0
Apr 6at SFPHI 6 − 4
Jul 9, 2025at SFPHI 13 − 0
Jul 8, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Jul 7, 2025at SFSF 3 − 1
Apr 17, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Apr 16, 2025at PHISF 11 − 4
Apr 15, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4

SF · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 28at PHI0 − 7L
Apr 26vs MIA6 − 3W
Apr 25vs MIA6 − 2W
Apr 24vs MIA4 − 9L
Apr 23vs LAD0 − 3L
Apr 22vs LAD3 − 0W
Apr 21vs LAD3 − 1W
Apr 19at WSH0 − 3L
Apr 18at WSH7 − 6W
Apr 17at WSH10 − 5W

PHI · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Apr 28vs SF7 − 0W
Apr 26at ATL2 − 6L
Apr 25at ATL8 − 5W
Apr 24at ATL3 − 5L
Apr 23at CHC7 − 8L
Apr 22at CHC2 − 7L
Apr 21at CHC4 − 7L
Apr 20at CHC1 − 5L
Apr 19vs ATL2 − 4L
Apr 18vs ATL1 − 3L