bayesRatings

Giants at Phillies

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 28 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final SF 0 – PHI 7
← MLB / Apr 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000000000020
PHI000104027110
Team box
SF·PHI
2
hits
11
0
home runs
0
0
walks
5
12
strikeouts
6
149
pitches thrown
125
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trea TurnerPHI4-5201
Bryce HarperPHI2-4101
Adolis GarciaPHI1-3102
Alec BohmPHI2-4001
Brandon MarshPHI1-3101
Justin CrawfordPHI1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler Mahle (L)SF5.06533
Jesus Luzardo (W)PHI7.02008

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +7
SF +7
123456789
largest lead: PHI 7 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 47%, PHI 53% · Updated Apr 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.4 – 4.0 SF
Expected total
8.4
GiantsThe matchupPhillies
+111Our fair odds−111
4.0Expected runs4.4
−0.02Power rating+0.01
3.5Runs / game3.6
4.1Allowed / game5.6
8.4Hits / game7.4
0.68Home runs / game1.07
2.1Walks drawn / game3.1
13−15Season record9−19
7−3Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · PHI chance
Our model fair47.4%52.6%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11147%+12943.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11153%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.3our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more38%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more28%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 17 Kstarted
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 8.59 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·PHI
Apr 26 vs MIA
last game
Apr 26 at ATL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
SF·PHI
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
3.5
runs / game
3.6
4.1
runs allowed / game
5.6
13−15
season record
9−19
7−9
home record
5−10
6−6
away record
4−9
W2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
1−9
8.4
hits / game
7.4
0.68
home runs / game
1.07
2.1
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.54
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

SF · PHI · 34 days
San Francisco GiantsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 4−6
Apr 8at SFSF 5 − 0
Apr 7at SFSF 6 − 0
Apr 6at SFPHI 6 − 4
Jul 9, 2025at SFPHI 13 − 0
Jul 8, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Jul 7, 2025at SFSF 3 − 1
Apr 17, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Apr 16, 2025at PHISF 11 − 4
Apr 15, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Apr 14, 2025at PHISF 10 − 4

SF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Apr 26vs MIA6 − 3W
Apr 25vs MIA6 − 2W
Apr 24vs MIA4 − 9L
Apr 23vs LAD0 − 3L
Apr 22vs LAD3 − 0W
Apr 21vs LAD3 − 1W
Apr 19at WSH0 − 3L
Apr 18at WSH7 − 6W
Apr 17at WSH10 − 5W
Apr 16at CIN3 − 0W

PHI · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Apr 26at ATL2 − 6L
Apr 25at ATL8 − 5W
Apr 24at ATL3 − 5L
Apr 23at CHC7 − 8L
Apr 22at CHC2 − 7L
Apr 21at CHC4 − 7L
Apr 20at CHC1 − 5L
Apr 19vs ATL2 − 4L
Apr 18vs ATL1 − 3L
Apr 17vs ATL0 − 9L