bayesRatings

Giants at Phillies

MLB · Thursday, Apr 30 · 11:35 AM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final SF 2 – PHI 3
← MLB / Apr 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF200000000280
PHI1000000023100
Team box
SF·PHI
8
hits
10
0
home runs
1
3
walks
2
10
strikeouts
8
132
pitches thrown
133
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Justin CrawfordPHI3-4001
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-2111
Heliot RamosSF3-4100
Casey SchmittSF2-4001
Adolis GarciaPHI2-4100
Bryson StottPHI1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan WebbSF7.07126
Ryan Walker (L)SF0.23201
Cristopher SanchezPHI6.24237
Chase Shugart (W)PHI0.10001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: PHI 1 · SF 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 47%, PHI 53% · Updated Apr 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.4 – 4.0 SF
Expected total
8.4
GiantsThe matchupPhillies
+115Our fair odds−115
4.0Expected runs4.4
−0.03Power rating+0.03
3.3Runs / game3.8
4.2Allowed / game5.4
8.2Hits / game7.6
0.66Home runs / game1.03
2.0Walks drawn / game3.2
13−16Season record10−19
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · PHI chance
Our model fair46.6%53.4%
Kalshi44.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:35 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11547%+12444.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11553%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.4our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more39%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more28%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 4.74 ERA, 17 Kstarted
PHICristopher Sanchez SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·PHI
Apr 28 at PHI
last game
Apr 28 vs SF
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
SF·PHI
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
3.3
runs / game
3.8
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.4
13−16
season record
10−19
7−9
home record
6−10
6−7
away record
4−9
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
2−8
8.2
hits / game
7.6
0.66
home runs / game
1.03
2.0
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.52
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

SF · PHI · 36 days
San Francisco GiantsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 5−5
Apr 28at PHIPHI 7 − 0
Apr 8at SFSF 5 − 0
Apr 7at SFSF 6 − 0
Apr 6at SFPHI 6 − 4
Jul 9, 2025at SFPHI 13 − 0
Jul 8, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Jul 7, 2025at SFSF 3 − 1
Apr 17, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Apr 16, 2025at PHISF 11 − 4
Apr 15, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4

SF · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 28at PHI0 − 7L
Apr 26vs MIA6 − 3W
Apr 25vs MIA6 − 2W
Apr 24vs MIA4 − 9L
Apr 23vs LAD0 − 3L
Apr 22vs LAD3 − 0W
Apr 21vs LAD3 − 1W
Apr 19at WSH0 − 3L
Apr 18at WSH7 − 6W
Apr 17at WSH10 − 5W

PHI · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Apr 28vs SF7 − 0W
Apr 26at ATL2 − 6L
Apr 25at ATL8 − 5W
Apr 24at ATL3 − 5L
Apr 23at CHC7 − 8L
Apr 22at CHC2 − 7L
Apr 21at CHC4 − 7L
Apr 20at CHC1 − 5L
Apr 19vs ATL2 − 4L
Apr 18vs ATL1 − 3L