bayesRatings

Giants at Rays

MLB · Saturday, May 2 · 5:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final SF 1 – TB 5
← MLB / May 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000001000171
TB00013001590
Team box
SF·TB
7
hits
9
0
home runs
0
1
walks
5
8
strikeouts
8
138
pitches thrown
131
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jonathan ArandaTB2-4002
Luis ArraezSF3-4100
Rafael DeversSF1-4001
Cedric MullinsTB1-3001
Jake FraleyTB1-2001
Jonny DeLucaTB2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Landen Roupp (L)SF4.18426
Griffin JaxTB2.21012
Jesse Scholtens (W)TB3.04103

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +4
SF +4
123456789
largest lead: TB 4 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 46%, TB 54% · Updated May 2

Expected margin
TB by 0.5
Expected score
TB 4.2 – 3.7 SF
Expected total
7.9
GiantsThe matchupRays
+119Our fair odds−119
3.7Expected runs4.2
−0.05Power rating+0.04
3.2Runs / game4.5
4.2Allowed / game4.5
8.3Hits / game8.4
0.59Home runs / game0.94
2.1Walks drawn / game3.3
13−19Season record19−12
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · TB chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshi53.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11946%−11653.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11954%−10751.8%———
SpreadTB by 0.5
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.5our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.5 expected
San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%
← SF wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more39%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more28%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFLanden Roupp SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 19 Kstarted
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 4.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·TB
May 1 at TB
last game
May 1 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
SF·TB
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
3.2
runs / game
4.5
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.5
13−19
season record
19−12
7−9
home record
9−4
6−10
away record
10−8
L4
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
7−3
8.3
hits / game
8.4
0.59
home runs / game
0.94
2.1
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.47
errors / game
0.81

Rating Trend

SF · TB · 38 days
San Francisco GiantsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 7−3
May 1at TBTB 3 − 0
Aug 17, 2025at SFSF 7 − 1
Aug 16, 2025at SFTB 2 − 1
Aug 15, 2025at SFTB 7 − 6
Apr 14, 2024at TBTB 9 − 4
Apr 13, 2024at TBSF 11 − 2
Apr 12, 2024at TBTB 2 − 1
Aug 16, 2023at SFTB 6 − 1
Aug 15, 2023at SFSF 7 − 0
Aug 14, 2023at SFTB 10 − 2

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
May 1at TB0 − 3L
Apr 30at PHI5 − 6L
Apr 30at PHI2 − 3L
Apr 28at PHI0 − 7L
Apr 26vs MIA6 − 3W
Apr 25vs MIA6 − 2W
Apr 24vs MIA4 − 9L
Apr 23vs LAD0 − 3L
Apr 22vs LAD3 − 0W
Apr 21vs LAD3 − 1W

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
May 1vs SF3 − 0W
Apr 29at CLE1 − 3L
Apr 28at CLE1 − 0W
Apr 27at CLE3 − 2W
Apr 26vs MIN4 − 2W
Apr 25vs MIN6 − 1W
Apr 24vs MIN6 − 2W
Apr 22vs CIN6 − 1W
Apr 21vs CIN6 − 12L
Apr 20vs CIN1 − 6L