bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Rays

MLB · Monday, May 4 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final TOR 1 – TB 5
← MLB / May 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR0010000001100
TB300002005110
Team box
TOR·TB
10
hits
11
0
home runs
1
2
walks
1
8
strikeouts
5
124
pitches thrown
136
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan ViladeTB1-2113
Taylor WallsTB1-3002
Jonathan ArandaTB3-4100
Yohendrick PinangoTOR3-5100
Ben WilliamsonTB2-4100
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eric Lauer (L)TOR4.15312
Nick Martinez (W)TB5.05114
Bryan Baker (S)TB0.10000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +4
TOR +4
123456789
largest lead: TB 4 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 48%, TB 52% · Updated May 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.2 – 4.2 TOR
Expected total
8.4
Blue JaysThe matchupRays
+107Our fair odds−107
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.07Power rating+0.05
4.2Runs / game4.5
4.6Allowed / game4.2
8.5Hits / game8.4
0.97Home runs / game0.88
2.9Walks drawn / game3.4
16−18Season record21−12
6−4Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · TB chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10748%+10548.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−10752%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue JaysPKour margin————
TBTampa Bay RaysPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 13%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more35%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more25%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TOREric Lauer SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 7 Kstarted
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 20.1 IP, 1.33 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·TB
May 3 at MIN
last game
May 3 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
TOR·TB
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.2
runs / game
4.5
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.2
16−18
season record
21−12
10−8
home record
11−4
6−10
away record
10−8
L1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
9−1
8.5
hits / game
8.4
0.97
home runs / game
0.88
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.4
6.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.68
errors / game
0.76

Rating Trend

TOR · TB · 40 days
Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
Sep 28, 2025at TORTOR 13 − 4
Sep 27, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 2
Sep 18, 2025at TBTB 4 − 0
Sep 17, 2025at TBTB 2 − 1
Sep 16, 2025at TBTOR 6 − 5
Sep 15, 2025at TBTOR 2 − 1
May 25, 2025at TBTB 13 − 0
May 24, 2025at TBTB 3 − 1
May 23, 2025at TBTB 3 − 1

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 3at MIN3 − 4L
May 2at MIN11 − 4W
May 1at MIN7 − 3W
Apr 30at MIN1 − 7L
Apr 29vs BOS8 − 1W
Apr 28vs BOS3 − 0W
Apr 27vs BOS0 − 5L
Apr 26vs CLE4 − 2W
Apr 25vs CLE5 − 3W
Apr 24vs CLE6 − 8L

TB · Last 10

9−1 · streak W3
May 3vs SF2 − 1W
May 2vs SF5 − 1W
May 1vs SF3 − 0W
Apr 29at CLE1 − 3L
Apr 28at CLE1 − 0W
Apr 27at CLE3 − 2W
Apr 26vs MIN4 − 2W
Apr 25vs MIN6 − 1W
Apr 24vs MIN6 − 2W
Apr 22vs CIN6 − 1W