bayesRatings

Angels at Blue Jays

MLB · Saturday, May 9 · 2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final LAA 1 – TOR 14
← MLB / May 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA0000000101101
TOR0001702414200
Team box
LAA·TOR
10
hits
20
0
home runs
3
2
walks
3
9
strikeouts
2
171
pitches thrown
155
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR4-5314
Ernie ClementTOR5-5312
Jesus SanchezTOR2-4312
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR2-5101
Daulton VarshoTOR3-5200
Adam FrazierLAA1-1001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack Kochanowicz (L)LAA4.09620
Trey YesavageTOR4.04026
Mason Fluharty (W)TOR1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +13
LAA +13
123456789
largest lead: TOR 13 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 41%, TOR 59% · Updated May 9

Expected margin
TOR by 0.9
Expected score
TOR 5.0 – 4.1 LAA
Expected total
9.2
AngelsThe matchupBlue Jays
+143Our fair odds−143
4.1Expected runs5.0
−0.23Power rating+0.05
4.4Runs / game3.9
4.8Allowed / game4.4
7.7Hits / game8.3
1.21Home runs / game0.89
3.8Walks drawn / game2.9
15−24Season record17−21
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · TOR chance
Our model fair41.1%58.9%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+14341%+15239.6%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−14359%−18364.6%———
SpreadTOR by 0.9
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.9our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 0.9 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 12%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more44%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more33%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAJack Kochanowicz SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 12 Kstarted
TORTrey Yesavage SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 1.10 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·TOR
May 8 at TOR
last game
May 8 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
LAA·TOR
−0.23
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.4
runs / game
3.9
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
15−24
season record
17−21
8−10
home record
11−8
7−14
away record
6−13
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
7.7
hits / game
8.3
1.21
home runs / game
0.89
3.8
walks drawn / game
2.9
9.8
batter strikeouts / game
6.8
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.56
errors / game
0.68

Rating Trend

LAA · TOR · 45 days
Los Angeles AngelsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 7−3
May 8at TORTOR 2 − 0
Apr 22at LAALAA 7 − 3
Apr 21at LAATOR 4 − 2
Apr 20at LAATOR 5 − 2
Jul 6, 2025at TORTOR 3 − 2
Jul 5, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 3
Jul 4, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 3
May 8, 2025at LAATOR 8 − 5
May 7, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 4
May 6, 2025at LAALAA 8 − 3

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
May 8at TOR0 − 2L
May 6vs CHW8 − 2W
May 5vs CHW4 − 3W
May 4vs CHW0 − 6L
May 3vs NYM1 − 5L
May 2vs NYM4 − 3W
May 1vs NYM3 − 4L
Apr 29at CHW2 − 3L
Apr 28at CHW2 − 5L
Apr 27at CHW7 − 8L

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 8vs LAA2 − 0W
May 6at TB0 − 3L
May 5at TB3 − 4L
May 4at TB1 − 5L
May 3at MIN3 − 4L
May 2at MIN11 − 4W
May 1at MIN7 − 3W
Apr 30at MIN1 − 7L
Apr 29vs BOS8 − 1W
Apr 28vs BOS3 − 0W