bayesRatings

Rays at Blue Jays

MLB · Monday, May 11 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final TB 8 – TOR 5
← MLB / May 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB3201101008120
TOR030000200561
Team box
TB·TOR
12
hits
6
1
home runs
2
1
walks
2
7
strikeouts
10
149
pitches thrown
164
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andres GimenezTOR2-4225
Jonathan ArandaTB2-3213
Richie PalaciosTB3-4003
Chandler SimpsonTB3-5300
Taylor WallsTB1-4001
Jake FraleyTB1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Drew Rasmussen (W)TB6.04316
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.00002
Kevin Gausman (L)TOR4.210605

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +5
TB +5
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · TB 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 49%, TOR 51% · Updated May 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.5 – 4.4 TB
Expected total
8.9
RaysThe matchupBlue Jays
+105Our fair odds−105
4.4Expected runs4.5
+0.09Power rating+0.06
4.4Runs / game4.1
3.9Allowed / game4.4
8.5Hits / game8.5
0.82Home runs / game0.93
3.3Walks drawn / game2.9
26−13Season record18−22
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · TOR chance
Our model fair48.7%51.3%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+10549%+10149.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−10551%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.2our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more38%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more28%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 17 Kstarted
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 3.93 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·TOR
May 10 at BOS
last game
May 10 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
TB·TOR
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.4
runs / game
4.1
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.4
26−13
season record
18−22
14−4
home record
12−9
12−9
away record
6−13
W1
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
4−6
8.5
hits / game
8.5
0.82
home runs / game
0.93
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.9
7.0
batter strikeouts / game
6.7
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.69
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

TB · TOR · 47 days
Tampa Bay RaysToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 5−5
May 6at TBTB 3 − 0
May 5at TBTB 4 − 3
May 4at TBTB 5 − 1
Sep 28, 2025at TORTOR 13 − 4
Sep 27, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 2
Sep 18, 2025at TBTB 4 − 0
Sep 17, 2025at TBTB 2 − 1
Sep 16, 2025at TBTOR 6 − 5
Sep 15, 2025at TBTOR 2 − 1

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
May 10at BOS4 − 1W
May 8at BOS0 − 2L
May 7at BOS8 − 4W
May 6vs TOR3 − 0W
May 5vs TOR4 − 3W
May 4vs TOR5 − 1W
May 3vs SF2 − 1W
May 2vs SF5 − 1W
May 1vs SF3 − 0W
Apr 29at CLE1 − 3L

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 10vs LAA1 − 6L
May 9vs LAA14 − 1W
May 8vs LAA2 − 0W
May 6at TB0 − 3L
May 5at TB3 − 4L
May 4at TB1 − 5L
May 3at MIN3 − 4L
May 2at MIN11 − 4W
May 1at MIN7 − 3W
Apr 30at MIN1 − 7L