bayesRatings

Rays at Red Sox

MLB · Friday, May 8 · 6:10 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final TB 0 – BOS 2
← MLB / May 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000000000041
BOS00110000250
Team box
TB·BOS
4
hits
5
0
home runs
2
1
walks
4
12
strikeouts
7
137
pitches thrown
124
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS3-4111
Wilyer AbreuBOS1-2111
Nick FortesTB2-3000
Jarren DuranBOS1-4000
Taylor WallsTB1-3000
Jonathan ArandaTB1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jesse Scholtens (L)TB4.22244
Connelly Early (W)BOS7.04018
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 2 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 49%, BOS 51% · Updated May 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.3 – 4.1 TB
Expected total
8.4
RaysThe matchupRed Sox
+104Our fair odds−104
4.1Expected runs4.3
+0.09Power rating+0.05
4.5Runs / game4.0
4.0Allowed / game4.3
8.6Hits / game7.9
0.84Home runs / game0.71
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
25−12Season record16−22
9−1Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · BOS chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+10449%+10947.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−10451%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.2our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 14%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← TB wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more37%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more27%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBJesse Scholtens RP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 7.98 ERA, 15 Kstarted
BOSConnelly Early SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.62 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·BOS
May 7 at BOS
last game
May 7 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
TB·BOS
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.5
runs / game
4.0
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.3
25−12
season record
16−22
14−4
home record
6−11
11−8
away record
10−11
W7
streak
L1
9−1
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
7.9
0.84
home runs / game
0.71
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
6.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.70
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

TB · BOS · 44 days
Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 8−2
May 7at BOSTB 8 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at TBTB 7 − 3
Sep 20, 2025at TBBOS 6 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at TBBOS 11 − 7
Jul 13, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at BOSBOS 1 − 0
Jul 11, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 4
Jul 10, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
Jun 10, 2025at BOSBOS 3 − 1

TB · Last 10

9−1 · streak W7
May 7at BOS8 − 4W
May 6vs TOR3 − 0W
May 5vs TOR4 − 3W
May 4vs TOR5 − 1W
May 3vs SF2 − 1W
May 2vs SF5 − 1W
May 1vs SF3 − 0W
Apr 29at CLE1 − 3L
Apr 28at CLE1 − 0W
Apr 27at CLE3 − 2W

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 7vs TB4 − 8L
May 6at DET4 − 0W
May 5at DET10 − 3W
May 4at DET5 − 4W
May 3vs HOU1 − 3L
May 2vs HOU3 − 6L
May 1vs HOU3 − 1W
Apr 29at TOR1 − 8L
Apr 28at TOR0 − 3L
Apr 27at TOR5 − 0W