bayesRatings

Rays at Red Sox

MLB · Thursday, May 7 · 6:00 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final TB 8 – BOS 4
← MLB / May 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB0300020128131
BOS030000010470
Team box
TB·BOS
13
hits
7
1
home runs
0
4
walks
1
3
strikeouts
6
128
pitches thrown
154
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Junior CamineroTB2-4212
Chandler SimpsonTB2-2003
Yandy DiazTB2-4001
Ben WilliamsonTB2-4201
Connor WongBOS1-3001
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Griffin JaxTB4.04213
Hunter Bigge (W)TB2.00001
Jake Bennett (L)BOS5.16421

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +4
TB +4
123456789
largest lead: BOS 0 · TB 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 48%, BOS 52% · Updated May 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.3 – 4.0 TB
Expected total
8.3
RaysThe matchupRed Sox
+107Our fair odds−107
4.0Expected runs4.3
+0.08Power rating+0.06
4.4Runs / game4.0
4.0Allowed / game4.2
8.5Hits / game8.0
0.83Home runs / game0.73
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
24−12Season record16−21
9−1Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · BOS chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+10748%−10751.8%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−10752%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.3our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 14%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← TB wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more28%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 6.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 5 Kstarted
BOSJake Bennett SP · last 1 start: 5.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·BOS
May 6 vs TOR
last game
May 6 at DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
TB·BOS
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.4
runs / game
4.0
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.2
24−12
season record
16−21
14−4
home record
6−10
10−8
away record
10−11
W6
streak
W3
9−1
last 10
6−4
8.5
hits / game
8.0
0.83
home runs / game
0.73
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.69
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

TB · BOS · 43 days
Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 8−2
Sep 21, 2025at TBTB 7 − 3
Sep 20, 2025at TBBOS 6 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at TBBOS 11 − 7
Jul 13, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at BOSBOS 1 − 0
Jul 11, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 4
Jul 10, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
Jun 10, 2025at BOSBOS 3 − 1
Jun 9, 2025at BOSTB 10 − 8

TB · Last 10

9−1 · streak W6
May 6vs TOR3 − 0W
May 5vs TOR4 − 3W
May 4vs TOR5 − 1W
May 3vs SF2 − 1W
May 2vs SF5 − 1W
May 1vs SF3 − 0W
Apr 29at CLE1 − 3L
Apr 28at CLE1 − 0W
Apr 27at CLE3 − 2W
Apr 26vs MIN4 − 2W

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
May 6at DET4 − 0W
May 5at DET10 − 3W
May 4at DET5 − 4W
May 3vs HOU1 − 3L
May 2vs HOU3 − 6L
May 1vs HOU3 − 1W
Apr 29at TOR1 − 8L
Apr 28at TOR0 − 3L
Apr 27at TOR5 − 0W
Apr 26at BAL5 − 3W