bayesRatings

Rays at Red Sox

MLB · Sunday, May 10 · 12:35 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final TB 4 – BOS 1
← MLB / May 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB102001000470
BOS000001000181
Team box
TB·BOS
7
hits
8
1
home runs
0
3
walks
1
5
strikeouts
8
140
pitches thrown
143
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mickey GasperBOS3-4001
Junior CamineroTB1-4111
Andruw MonasterioBOS2-3000
Cedric MullinsTB1-3001
Ben WilliamsonTB1-2101
Trevor StoryBOS1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick Martinez (W)TB5.27103
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.01011
Payton Tolle (L)BOS5.06104

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +4
TB +4
123456789
largest lead: BOS 0 · TB 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 49%, BOS 51% · Updated May 10

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.3 – 4.0 TB
Expected total
8.3
RaysThe matchupRed Sox
+106Our fair odds−106
4.0Expected runs4.3
+0.08Power rating+0.06
4.4Runs / game4.0
3.9Allowed / game4.2
8.5Hits / game7.9
0.82Home runs / game0.74
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
25−13Season record17−22
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · BOS chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi44.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+10649%+12444.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−10651%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.3our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 13%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← TB wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more28%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 0.90 ERA, 14 Kstarted
BOSPayton Tolle SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.04 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·BOS
May 8 at BOS
last game
May 8 vs TB
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
TB·BOS
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.4
runs / game
4.0
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.2
25−13
season record
17−22
14−4
home record
7−11
11−9
away record
10−11
L1
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
5−5
8.5
hits / game
7.9
0.82
home runs / game
0.74
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.71
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

TB · BOS · 46 days
Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 8−2
May 8at BOSBOS 2 − 0
May 7at BOSTB 8 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at TBTB 7 − 3
Sep 20, 2025at TBBOS 6 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at TBBOS 11 − 7
Jul 13, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at BOSBOS 1 − 0
Jul 11, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 4
Jul 10, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
May 8at BOS0 − 2L
May 7at BOS8 − 4W
May 6vs TOR3 − 0W
May 5vs TOR4 − 3W
May 4vs TOR5 − 1W
May 3vs SF2 − 1W
May 2vs SF5 − 1W
May 1vs SF3 − 0W
Apr 29at CLE1 − 3L
Apr 28at CLE1 − 0W

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 8vs TB2 − 0W
May 7vs TB4 − 8L
May 6at DET4 − 0W
May 5at DET10 − 3W
May 4at DET5 − 4W
May 3vs HOU1 − 3L
May 2vs HOU3 − 6L
May 1vs HOU3 − 1W
Apr 29at TOR1 − 8L
Apr 28at TOR0 − 3L