bayesRatings

Angels at Blue Jays

MLB · Sunday, May 10 · 12:37 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final LAA 6 – TOR 1
← MLB / May 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000041001670
TOR100000000150
Team box
LAA·TOR
7
hits
5
3
home runs
0
2
walks
1
6
strikeouts
9
123
pitches thrown
126
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jo AdellLAA3-4222
Oswald PerazaLAA1-4112
Vaughn GrissomLAA2-4002
Daulton VarshoTOR2-4100
Kazuma OkamotoTOR1-4001
Zach NetoLAA1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jose Soriano (W)LAA7.25117
Spencer MilesTOR3.02002
Eric Lauer (L)TOR5.05624

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +5
LAA +5
123456789
largest lead: TOR 1 · LAA 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 40%, TOR 60% · Updated May 10

Expected margin
TOR by 1.1
Expected score
TOR 5.2 – 4.2 LAA
Expected total
9.4
AngelsThe matchupBlue Jays
+150Our fair odds−150
4.2Expected runs5.2
−0.25Power rating+0.07
4.3Runs / game4.2
5.0Allowed / game4.4
7.8Hits / game8.6
1.18Home runs / game0.95
3.8Walks drawn / game2.9
15−25Season record18−21
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · TOR chance
Our model fair40.1%59.9%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:37 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+15040%−10751.8%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−15060%−11653.7%———
SpreadTOR by 1.1
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.1our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 1.1 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 12%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more45%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more35%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.14 ERA, 15 Kstarted
TORSpencer Miles RP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·TOR
May 9 at TOR
last game
May 9 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
LAA·TOR
−0.25
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.3
runs / game
4.2
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.4
15−25
season record
18−21
8−10
home record
12−8
7−15
away record
6−13
L2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
8.6
1.18
home runs / game
0.95
3.8
walks drawn / game
2.9
9.8
batter strikeouts / game
6.7
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.57
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

LAA · TOR · 46 days
Los Angeles AngelsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 8−2
May 9at TORTOR 14 − 1
May 8at TORTOR 2 − 0
Apr 22at LAALAA 7 − 3
Apr 21at LAATOR 4 − 2
Apr 20at LAATOR 5 − 2
Jul 6, 2025at TORTOR 3 − 2
Jul 5, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 3
Jul 4, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 3
May 8, 2025at LAATOR 8 − 5
May 7, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 4

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
May 9at TOR1 − 14L
May 8at TOR0 − 2L
May 6vs CHW8 − 2W
May 5vs CHW4 − 3W
May 4vs CHW0 − 6L
May 3vs NYM1 − 5L
May 2vs NYM4 − 3W
May 1vs NYM3 − 4L
Apr 29at CHW2 − 3L
Apr 28at CHW2 − 5L

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 9vs LAA14 − 1W
May 8vs LAA2 − 0W
May 6at TB0 − 3L
May 5at TB3 − 4L
May 4at TB1 − 5L
May 3at MIN3 − 4L
May 2at MIN11 − 4W
May 1at MIN7 − 3W
Apr 30at MIN1 − 7L
Apr 29vs BOS8 − 1W