bayesRatings

Rays at Blue Jays

MLB · Wednesday, May 13 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final TB 3 – TOR 5
← MLB / May 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
TB0000001002380
TOR0000000104560
Team box
TB·TOR
8
hits
6
0
home runs
1
5
walks
10
12
strikeouts
3
155
pitches thrown
156
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Daulton VarshoTOR1-4114
Yandy DiazTB2-5001
Richie PalaciosTB1-5001
Ben WilliamsonTB1-1101
Jesus SanchezTOR2-2000
Cedric MullinsTB1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Griffin JaxTB5.04041
Aaron Brooks (L)TB0.11320
Dylan CeaseTOR7.03139
Jeff Hoffman (W)TOR1.02100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
TB +3
12345678910
largest lead: TOR 2 · TB 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 50%, TOR 50% · Updated May 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.6 – 4.6 TB
Expected total
9.2
RaysThe matchupBlue Jays
+102Our fair odds−102
4.6Expected runs4.6
+0.11Power rating+0.04
4.5Runs / game4.2
4.0Allowed / game4.5
8.7Hits / game8.4
0.83Home runs / game0.93
3.3Walks drawn / game2.8
28−13Season record18−24
9−1Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · TOR chance
Our model fair49.6%50.4%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+10250%+12444.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−10250%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay RaysPKour margin————
TORToronto Blue JaysPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more36%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more27%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 9.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 7 Kstarted
TORDylan Cease SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·TOR
May 12 at TOR
last game
May 12 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
TB·TOR
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.5
runs / game
4.2
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.5
28−13
season record
18−24
14−4
home record
12−11
14−9
away record
6−13
W3
streak
L3
9−1
last 10
3−7
8.7
hits / game
8.4
0.83
home runs / game
0.93
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.8
7.0
batter strikeouts / game
6.9
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.68
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

TB · TOR · 49 days
Tampa Bay RaysToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 3−7
May 12at TORTB 7 − 6
May 11at TORTB 8 − 5
May 6at TBTB 3 − 0
May 5at TBTB 4 − 3
May 4at TBTB 5 − 1
Sep 28, 2025at TORTOR 13 − 4
Sep 27, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 2
Sep 18, 2025at TBTB 4 − 0
Sep 17, 2025at TBTB 2 − 1

TB · Last 10

9−1 · streak W3
May 12at TOR7 − 6W
May 11at TOR8 − 5W
May 10at BOS4 − 1W
May 8at BOS0 − 2L
May 7at BOS8 − 4W
May 6vs TOR3 − 0W
May 5vs TOR4 − 3W
May 4vs TOR5 − 1W
May 3vs SF2 − 1W
May 2vs SF5 − 1W

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
May 12vs TB6 − 7L
May 11vs TB5 − 8L
May 10vs LAA1 − 6L
May 9vs LAA14 − 1W
May 8vs LAA2 − 0W
May 6at TB0 − 3L
May 5at TB3 − 4L
May 4at TB1 − 5L
May 3at MIN3 − 4L
May 2at MIN11 − 4W