bayesRatings

Rays at Blue Jays

MLB · Tuesday, May 12 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final TB 7 – TOR 6
← MLB / May 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
TB10200110027131
TOR0000005001670
Team box
TB·TOR
13
hits
7
1
home runs
0
6
walks
3
8
strikeouts
12
166
pitches thrown
212
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan ViladeTB2-4111
Jonny DeLucaTB3-5001
Cedric MullinsTB1-5102
Jonathan ArandaTB2-4101
George SpringerTOR2-5201
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR1-4002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane McClanahanTB5.01017
Ian Seymour (W)TB1.10002
Garrett Cleavinger (S)TB1.00010
Patrick CorbinTOR4.19311
Braydon Fisher (L)TOR1.01110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +5
TB +5
12345678910
largest lead: TOR 0 · TB 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 49%, TOR 51% · Updated May 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.5 – 4.5 TB
Expected total
9.0
RaysThe matchupBlue Jays
+103Our fair odds−103
4.5Expected runs4.5
+0.10Power rating+0.05
4.5Runs / game4.1
3.9Allowed / game4.5
8.6Hits / game8.4
0.82Home runs / game0.95
3.2Walks drawn / game2.8
27−13Season record18−23
9−1Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · TOR chance
Our model fair49.2%50.8%
Kalshi54.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+10349%−12154.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−10351%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.1our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more37%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more27%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBShane McClanahan SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 16 Kstarted
TORPatrick Corbin SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·TOR
May 11 at TOR
last game
May 11 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
TB·TOR
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.5
runs / game
4.1
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.5
27−13
season record
18−23
14−4
home record
12−10
13−9
away record
6−13
W2
streak
L2
9−1
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
8.4
0.82
home runs / game
0.95
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.8
7.0
batter strikeouts / game
6.8
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.68
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

TB · TOR · 48 days
Tampa Bay RaysToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 4−6
May 11at TORTB 8 − 5
May 6at TBTB 3 − 0
May 5at TBTB 4 − 3
May 4at TBTB 5 − 1
Sep 28, 2025at TORTOR 13 − 4
Sep 27, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 2
Sep 18, 2025at TBTB 4 − 0
Sep 17, 2025at TBTB 2 − 1
Sep 16, 2025at TBTOR 6 − 5

TB · Last 10

9−1 · streak W2
May 11at TOR8 − 5W
May 10at BOS4 − 1W
May 8at BOS0 − 2L
May 7at BOS8 − 4W
May 6vs TOR3 − 0W
May 5vs TOR4 − 3W
May 4vs TOR5 − 1W
May 3vs SF2 − 1W
May 2vs SF5 − 1W
May 1vs SF3 − 0W

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 11vs TB5 − 8L
May 10vs LAA1 − 6L
May 9vs LAA14 − 1W
May 8vs LAA2 − 0W
May 6at TB0 − 3L
May 5at TB3 − 4L
May 4at TB1 − 5L
May 3at MIN3 − 4L
May 2at MIN11 − 4W
May 1at MIN7 − 3W