bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Tigers

MLB · Saturday, May 16 · 12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final TOR 2 – DET 1
← MLB / May 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
TOR0000001001251
DET0000010000170
Team box
TOR·DET
5
hits
7
1
home runs
1
1
walks
2
6
strikeouts
14
151
pitches thrown
115
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt VierlingDET2-4111
Yohendrick PinangoTOR2-4111
Daulton VarshoTOR2-3001
Kevin McGonigleDET2-5000
Zach McKinstryDET1-4000
Riley GreeneDET1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mason FluhartyTOR1.11003
Louis Varland (W)TOR2.02002
Casey MizeDET6.02004
Tyler Holton (L)DET1.02000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
TOR +3
12345678910
largest lead: DET 1 · TOR 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 49%, DET 51% · Updated May 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.3 – 4.2 DET
Expected total
8.5
Blue JaysThe matchupTigers
+106Our fair odds−106
4.3Expected runs4.2
+0.04Power rating+0.00
4.1Runs / game4.1
4.5Allowed / game4.3
8.2Hits / game8.0
0.91Home runs / game0.89
3.0Walks drawn / game3.8
19−25Season record20−25
3−7Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · DET chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10649%−10751.8%———
DETDetroit Tigers−10651%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.1our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 12%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 17%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byDET wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more37%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more27%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORMason Fluharty RP · last 1 start: 1.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 0 Kstarted
DETCasey Mize SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·DET
May 15 at DET
last game
May 15 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
TOR·DET
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
4.1
runs / game
4.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.3
19−25
season record
20−25
13−11
home record
13−6
6−14
away record
7−19
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
2−8
8.2
hits / game
8.0
0.91
home runs / game
0.89
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.8
6.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.64
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

TOR · DET · 52 days
Toronto Blue JaysDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 5−5
May 15at DETDET 3 − 2
Jul 27, 2025at DETDET 10 − 4
Jul 26, 2025at DETTOR 6 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at DETTOR 6 − 2
Jul 24, 2025at DETTOR 11 − 4
May 18, 2025at TORDET 3 − 2
May 17, 2025at TORTOR 2 − 1
May 16, 2025at TORDET 5 − 4
Jul 21, 2024at TORTOR 5 − 4
Jul 20, 2024at TORDET 7 − 3

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
May 15at DET2 − 3L
May 13vs TB5 − 3W
May 12vs TB6 − 7L
May 11vs TB5 − 8L
May 10vs LAA1 − 6L
May 9vs LAA14 − 1W
May 8vs LAA2 − 0W
May 6at TB0 − 3L
May 5at TB3 − 4L
May 4at TB1 − 5L

DET · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
May 15vs TOR3 − 2W
May 14at NYM4 − 9L
May 13at NYM2 − 3L
May 12at NYM2 − 10L
May 10at KC6 − 3W
May 9at KC1 − 5L
May 8at KC3 − 4L
May 6vs BOS0 − 4L
May 5vs BOS3 − 10L
May 4vs BOS4 − 5L