bayesRatings

Angels at Guardians

MLB · Tuesday, May 12 · 5:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final LAA 2 – CLE 3
← MLB / May 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000001010281
CLE00101010340
Team box
LAA·CLE
8
hits
4
1
home runs
1
4
walks
4
13
strikeouts
4
142
pitches thrown
184
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Angel MartinezCLE2-3111
Vaughn GrissomLAA1-4111
Brayan RocchioCLE1-2001
Mike TroutLAA2-4000
Nolan SchanuelLAA2-5000
Steven KwanCLE1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Walbert Urena (L)LAA5.03214
Slade CecconiCLE4.05017
Hunter Gaddis (W)CLE1.11000
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.10002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
LAA +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 2 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 41%, CLE 59% · Updated May 12

Expected margin
CLE by 1.2
Expected score
CLE 4.5 – 3.4 LAA
Expected total
7.9
AngelsThe matchupGuardians
+146Our fair odds−146
3.4Expected runs4.5
−0.24Power rating+0.06
4.3Runs / game4.2
5.0Allowed / game4.2
7.8Hits / game7.5
1.19Home runs / game0.93
3.7Walks drawn / game4.3
16−26Season record22−21
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · CLE chance
Our model fair40.6%59.4%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+14641%+11945.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−14659%−14258.7%———
SpreadCLE by 1.2
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.2our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 1.2 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 13%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 12%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more46%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more35%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAWalbert Urena SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 12 Kstarted
CLESlade Cecconi SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 6.06 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·CLE
May 11 at CLE
last game
May 11 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
LAA·CLE
−0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.3
runs / game
4.2
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.2
16−26
season record
22−21
8−10
home record
11−9
8−16
away record
11−12
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
7.5
1.19
home runs / game
0.93
3.7
walks drawn / game
4.3
9.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.55
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

LAA · CLE · 48 days
Los Angeles AngelsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 7−3
May 11at CLECLE 7 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 2
May 31, 2025at CLECLE 7 − 5
May 30, 2025at CLELAA 4 − 1
Apr 6, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 2
Apr 5, 2025at LAALAA 10 − 4
Apr 4, 2025at LAACLE 8 − 6
May 26, 2024at LAACLE 5 − 4
May 25, 2024at LAACLE 4 − 3
May 24, 2024at LAACLE 10 − 4

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 11at CLE2 − 7L
May 10at TOR6 − 1W
May 9at TOR1 − 14L
May 8at TOR0 − 2L
May 6vs CHW8 − 2W
May 5vs CHW4 − 3W
May 4vs CHW0 − 6L
May 3vs NYM1 − 5L
May 2vs NYM4 − 3W
May 1vs NYM3 − 4L

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 11vs LAA7 − 2W
May 10vs MIN4 − 5L
May 9vs MIN1 − 2L
May 8vs MIN6 − 4W
May 7at KC8 − 5W
May 6at KC3 − 1W
May 5at KC3 − 5L
May 4at KC2 − 6L
May 3at ATH1 − 7L
May 2at ATH14 − 6W