bayesRatings

Twins at Guardians

MLB · Saturday, May 9 · 5:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final MIN 2 – CLE 1
← MLB / May 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
MIN10000000001220
CLE00010000000121
Team box
MIN·CLE
2
hits
2
1
home runs
0
3
walks
9
17
strikeouts
7
178
pitches thrown
178
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Byron BuxtonMIN2-5112
Kyle ManzardoCLE1-3001
Jose RamirezCLE1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joe RyanMIN6.02135
Eric Orze (W)MIN1.20030
Luis Garcia (S)MIN1.00000
Tanner BibeeCLE6.01129
Peyton Pallette (L)CLE2.01013

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
MIN +3
1234567891011
largest lead: CLE 0 · MIN 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 43%, CLE 57% · Updated May 9

Expected margin
CLE by 0.7
Expected score
CLE 4.3 – 3.6 MIN
Expected total
8.0
TwinsThe matchupGuardians
+135Our fair odds−135
3.6Expected runs4.3
−0.16Power rating+0.06
4.8Runs / game4.2
5.2Allowed / game4.2
8.0Hits / game7.6
1.13Home runs / game1.00
3.9Walks drawn / game4.0
16−23Season record21−19
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CLE chance
Our model fair42.6%57.4%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+13543%+10149.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−13557%−12154.7%———
SpreadCLE by 0.7
MINMinnesota Twins+0.7our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 0.7 expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 14%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more41%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more30%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINJoe Ryan SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 4.76 ERA, 12 Kstarted
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.20 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CLE
May 8 at CLE
last game
May 8 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
MIN·CLE
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.8
runs / game
4.2
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.2
16−23
season record
21−19
10−10
home record
10−7
6−13
away record
11−12
L3
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
7.6
1.13
home runs / game
1.00
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.0
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.6
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.49
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

MIN · CLE · 45 days
Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 7−3
May 8at CLECLE 6 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at MINCLE 8 − 0
Sep 20, 2025at MINCLE 6 − 0
Sep 19, 2025at MINCLE 6 − 2
Aug 3, 2025at CLEMIN 5 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 4
Aug 1, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
May 21, 2025at MINCLE 5 − 1
May 19, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 5

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
May 8at CLE4 − 6L
May 7at WSH5 − 7L
May 6at WSH2 − 15L
May 5at WSH11 − 3W
May 3vs TOR4 − 3W
May 2vs TOR4 − 11L
May 1vs TOR3 − 7L
Apr 30vs TOR7 − 1W
Apr 29vs SEA3 − 5L
Apr 28vs SEA1 − 7L

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
May 8vs MIN6 − 4W
May 7at KC8 − 5W
May 6at KC3 − 1W
May 5at KC3 − 5L
May 4at KC2 − 6L
May 3at ATH1 − 7L
May 2at ATH14 − 6W
May 1at ATH8 − 5W
Apr 29vs TB3 − 1W
Apr 28vs TB0 − 1L