bayesRatings

Twins at Nationals

MLB · Wednesday, May 6 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final MIN 2 – WSH 15
← MLB / May 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN001010000230
WSH0001232715141
Team box
MIN·WSH
3
hits
14
1
home runs
4
0
walks
5
5
strikeouts
7
159
pitches thrown
111
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
CJ AbramsWSH3-5215
Brady HouseWSH2-5213
Matt WallnerMIN2-3112
Jose TenaWSH2-5212
Drew MillasWSH2-4212
James WoodWSH2-4202
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bailey Ober (L)MIN5.06523
Miles Mikolas (W)WSH5.13203

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +13
MIN +13
123456789
largest lead: WSH 13 · MIN 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 51%, WSH 49% · Updated May 6

Expected margin
MIN by 1.0
Expected score
MIN 5.9 – 4.9 WSH
Expected total
10.8
TwinsThe matchupNationals
−103Our fair odds+103
5.9Expected runs4.9
−0.11Power rating−0.23
4.9Runs / game5.1
4.8Allowed / game5.8
7.9Hits / game8.2
1.14Home runs / game1.03
4.1Walks drawn / game3.6
16−20Season record16−20
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · WSH chance
Our model fair50.7%49.3%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins−10351%−11653.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+10349%−10350.7%———
SpreadMIN by 1.0
MINMinnesota Twins−1our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.8
Over10.8our total————
Under10.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Twins by 1.0 expected
Minnesota Twins by 16 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byWSH wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more46%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more36%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.564%
Total over 10.548%
Total over 12.533%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINBailey Ober SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 1.47 ERA, 15 Kstarted
WSHMiles Mikolas SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 12.71 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·WSH
May 5 at WSH
last game
May 5 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
MIN·WSH
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.23
4.9
runs / game
5.1
4.8
runs allowed / game
5.8
16−20
season record
16−20
10−10
home record
4−13
6−10
away record
12−7
W2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.2
1.14
home runs / game
1.03
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.50
errors / game
0.92

Rating Trend

MIN · WSH · 42 days
Minnesota TwinsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 5−5
May 5at WSHMIN 11 − 3
Jul 27, 2025at MINWSH 7 − 2
Jul 26, 2025at MINWSH 9 − 3
Jul 25, 2025at MINMIN 1 − 0
May 22, 2024at WSHMIN 3 − 2
May 21, 2024at WSHMIN 10 − 0
May 20, 2024at WSHWSH 12 − 3
Apr 23, 2023at MINMIN 3 − 1
Apr 22, 2023at MINWSH 10 − 4
Apr 21, 2023at MINWSH 3 − 2

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
May 5at WSH11 − 3W
May 3vs TOR4 − 3W
May 2vs TOR4 − 11L
May 1vs TOR3 − 7L
Apr 30vs TOR7 − 1W
Apr 29vs SEA3 − 5L
Apr 28vs SEA1 − 7L
Apr 27vs SEA11 − 4W
Apr 26at TB2 − 4L
Apr 25at TB1 − 6L

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 5vs MIN3 − 11L
May 3vs MIL3 − 2W
May 2vs MIL1 − 4L
May 1vs MIL1 − 6L
Apr 30at NYM5 − 4W
Apr 29at NYM14 − 2W
Apr 28at NYM0 − 8L
Apr 26at CHW2 − 1W
Apr 25at CHW6 − 3W
Apr 24at CHW4 − 5L