bayesRatings

Twins at Nationals

MLB · Tuesday, May 5 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final MIN 11 – WSH 3
← MLB / May 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN02040013111100
WSH100010100361
Team box
MIN·WSH
10
hits
6
1
home runs
0
6
walks
3
4
strikeouts
10
144
pitches thrown
168
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brooks LeeMIN3-5203
Byron BuxtonMIN1-6113
Trevor LarnachMIN2-5002
Curtis MeadWSH2-4001
Josh BellMIN1-5001
Jose TenaWSH2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Taj Bradley (W)MIN6.04228
Cade Cavalli (L)WSH4.05332

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +8
MIN +8
123456789
largest lead: WSH 1 · MIN 8lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 50%, WSH 50% · Updated May 5

Expected margin
MIN by 0.8
Expected score
MIN 5.7 – 4.9 WSH
Expected total
10.6
TwinsThe matchupNationals
+101Our fair odds−101
5.7Expected runs4.9
−0.13Power rating−0.20
4.7Runs / game5.1
4.9Allowed / game5.6
7.8Hits / game8.2
1.14Home runs / game1.06
4.0Walks drawn / game3.6
15−20Season record16−19
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · WSH chance
Our model fair49.7%50.3%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+10150%−11653.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−10150%−10350.7%———
SpreadMIN by 0.8
MINMinnesota Twins−0.8our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.6
Over10.6our total————
Under10.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Twins by 0.8 expected
Minnesota Twins by 16 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byWSH wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more44%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more35%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.563%
Total over 10.546%
Total over 12.532%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 4.66 ERA, 15 Kstarted
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 25 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·WSH
May 3 vs TOR
last game
May 3 vs MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
MIN·WSH
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
4.7
runs / game
5.1
4.9
runs allowed / game
5.6
15−20
season record
16−19
10−10
home record
4−12
5−10
away record
12−7
W1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
8.2
1.14
home runs / game
1.06
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.51
errors / game
0.91

Rating Trend

MIN · WSH · 41 days
Minnesota TwinsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · WSH 5−4
Jul 27, 2025at MINWSH 7 − 2
Jul 26, 2025at MINWSH 9 − 3
Jul 25, 2025at MINMIN 1 − 0
May 22, 2024at WSHMIN 3 − 2
May 21, 2024at WSHMIN 10 − 0
May 20, 2024at WSHWSH 12 − 3
Apr 23, 2023at MINMIN 3 − 1
Apr 22, 2023at MINWSH 10 − 4
Apr 21, 2023at MINWSH 3 − 2

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
May 3vs TOR4 − 3W
May 2vs TOR4 − 11L
May 1vs TOR3 − 7L
Apr 30vs TOR7 − 1W
Apr 29vs SEA3 − 5L
Apr 28vs SEA1 − 7L
Apr 27vs SEA11 − 4W
Apr 26at TB2 − 4L
Apr 25at TB1 − 6L
Apr 24at TB2 − 6L

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 3vs MIL3 − 2W
May 2vs MIL1 − 4L
May 1vs MIL1 − 6L
Apr 30at NYM5 − 4W
Apr 29at NYM14 − 2W
Apr 28at NYM0 − 8L
Apr 26at CHW2 − 1W
Apr 25at CHW6 − 3W
Apr 24at CHW4 − 5L
Apr 23vs ATL2 − 7L