bayesRatings

Brewers at Nationals

MLB · Sunday, May 3 · 12:35 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final MIL 2 – WSH 3
← MLB / May 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL000010001240
WSH00002010370
Team box
MIL·WSH
4
hits
7
0
home runs
0
2
walks
1
6
strikeouts
9
104
pitches thrown
121
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nasim NunezWSH2-3102
Brandon LockridgeMIL2-4100
Jose TenaWSH1-2001
CJ AbramsWSH2-4200
Gary SanchezMIL1-4000
Jake BauersMIL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan Henderson (L)MIL6.03208
PJ PoulinWSH2.01012
Zack Littell (W)WSH3.21111
Richard Lovelady (S)WSH0.21001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: WSH 2 · MIL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 59%, WSH 41% · Updated May 3

Expected margin
MIL by 2.2
Expected score
MIL 6.5 – 4.3 WSH
Expected total
10.8
BrewersThe matchupNationals
−146Our fair odds+146
6.5Expected runs4.3
+0.25Power rating−0.21
5.3Runs / game5.2
3.9Allowed / game5.7
8.1Hits / game8.3
0.69Home runs / game1.09
4.8Walks drawn / game3.7
18−14Season record15−19
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair59.3%40.7%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14659%−14859.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+14641%+12444.7%———
SpreadMIL by 2.2
MILMilwaukee Brewers−2.2our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.8
Over10.8our total————
Under10.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 2.2 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 18 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 17 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 13%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 17 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 18 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byWSH wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more55%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more45%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.564%
Total over 10.548%
Total over 12.533%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILLogan Henderson SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 3.18 ERA, 13 Kstarted
WSHPJ Poulin RP · last 3 starts: 3.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 2 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·WSH
May 2 at WSH
last game
May 2 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
MIL·WSH
+0.25
rating (0 = average)
−0.21
5.3
runs / game
5.2
3.9
runs allowed / game
5.7
18−14
season record
15−19
10−8
home record
3−12
8−6
away record
12−7
W3
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.3
0.69
home runs / game
1.09
4.8
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.47
errors / game
0.94

Rating Trend

MIL · WSH · 39 days
Milwaukee BrewersWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
May 2at WSHMIL 4 − 1
May 1at WSHMIL 6 − 1
Apr 12at MILWSH 8 − 6
Apr 11at MILWSH 3 − 1
Apr 10at MILWSH 7 − 3
Aug 3, 2025at WSHMIL 14 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at WSHMIL 8 − 2
Aug 1, 2025at WSHMIL 16 − 9
Jul 13, 2025at MILMIL 8 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at MILMIL 6 − 5

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
May 2at WSH4 − 1W
May 1at WSH6 − 1W
Apr 30vs ARI13 − 1W
Apr 29vs ARI2 − 6L
Apr 28vs ARI13 − 2W
Apr 26vs PIT5 − 0W
Apr 25vs PIT3 − 6L
Apr 24vs PIT0 − 6L
Apr 23at DET4 − 5L
Apr 22at DET2 − 5L

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 2vs MIL1 − 4L
May 1vs MIL1 − 6L
Apr 30at NYM5 − 4W
Apr 29at NYM14 − 2W
Apr 28at NYM0 − 8L
Apr 26at CHW2 − 1W
Apr 25at CHW6 − 3W
Apr 24at CHW4 − 5L
Apr 23vs ATL2 − 7L
Apr 22vs ATL6 − 8L