bayesRatings

Brewers at Nationals

MLB · Friday, May 1 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final MIL 6 – WSH 1
← MLB / May 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL1010200206120
WSH000000100122
Team box
MIL·WSH
12
hits
2
0
home runs
0
5
walks
5
7
strikeouts
13
145
pitches thrown
182
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
William ContrerasMIL4-5103
Tyler BlackMIL2-3001
Luis RengifoMIL1-4001
David HamiltonMIL2-4100
Brice TurangMIL1-4100
Garrett MitchellMIL1-6100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob Misiorowski (W)MIL5.10028
Jake Irvin (L)WSH5.06345

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +5
MIL +5
123456789
largest lead: WSH 0 · MIL 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 58%, WSH 42% · Updated May 1

Expected margin
MIL by 2.1
Expected score
MIL 6.5 – 4.5 WSH
Expected total
11.0
BrewersThe matchupNationals
−138Our fair odds+138
6.5Expected runs4.5
+0.22Power rating−0.19
5.3Runs / game5.5
4.1Allowed / game5.8
8.0Hits / game8.4
0.73Home runs / game1.16
4.7Walks drawn / game3.8
16−14Season record15−17
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair58.0%42.0%
Kalshi61.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13858%−16161.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+13842%+12943.7%———
SpreadMIL by 2.1
MILMilwaukee Brewers−2.1our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.0
Over11.0our total————
Under11.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 2.1 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 18 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 17 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 13%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 17 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 18 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byWSH wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more54%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more44%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.556%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILJacob Misiorowski SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 23 Kstarted
WSHJake Irvin SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 2.87 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·WSH
Apr 30 vs ARI
last game
Apr 30 at NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
MIL·WSH
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
5.3
runs / game
5.5
4.1
runs allowed / game
5.8
16−14
season record
15−17
10−8
home record
3−10
6−6
away record
12−7
W1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
8.4
0.73
home runs / game
1.16
4.7
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.47
errors / game
0.88

Rating Trend

MIL · WSH · 37 days
Milwaukee BrewersWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 4−6
Apr 12at MILWSH 8 − 6
Apr 11at MILWSH 3 − 1
Apr 10at MILWSH 7 − 3
Aug 3, 2025at WSHMIL 14 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at WSHMIL 8 − 2
Aug 1, 2025at WSHMIL 16 − 9
Jul 13, 2025at MILMIL 8 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at MILMIL 6 − 5
Jul 11, 2025at MILMIL 8 − 3
Aug 4, 2024at WSHWSH 4 − 3

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 30vs ARI13 − 1W
Apr 29vs ARI2 − 6L
Apr 28vs ARI13 − 2W
Apr 26vs PIT5 − 0W
Apr 25vs PIT3 − 6L
Apr 24vs PIT0 − 6L
Apr 23at DET4 − 5L
Apr 22at DET2 − 5L
Apr 21at DET12 − 4W
Apr 19at MIA3 − 5L

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 30at NYM5 − 4W
Apr 29at NYM14 − 2W
Apr 28at NYM0 − 8L
Apr 26at CHW2 − 1W
Apr 25at CHW6 − 3W
Apr 24at CHW4 − 5L
Apr 23vs ATL2 − 7L
Apr 22vs ATL6 − 8L
Apr 21vs ATL11 − 4W
Apr 20vs ATL4 − 9L